Forecasts for the Weeks of October 20 and 27

Peter Morici
|
Posted: Oct 19, 2014 12:01 AM
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of October 20
October 21
Existing Home Sales - September 5.09M 5.05 5.10
October 22
Consumer Price Index - September 0.0%' -0.2 0.0
Core CPI 0.2 0.0 0.1
October 23
Initial Unemployment Claims 281K 264 280
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index 57.5 57.5 57.0
FHFA House Price Index - August 0.4% 0.1
Leading Indicators 0.7% 0.2 0.6
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index 6.0 6.0
October 24
New Home Sales - September .465M 504 .470
Week of October 27
October 27
Pending Home Sale Index - September 104.7 104.7 105.0
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 11.5 10.8
October 28
Durable Goods Sales - September 0.1% -18.2 0.7
S&P Case/Shiller Index - August
Twenty City M/M 0.4% 0.6 0.5
Twenty City M/M - SA 0.1 -0.5 0.2
Twenty City Y/Y 5.8 6.7
Consumer Confidence 88.4 86.0 87.7
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 10.0 12.0
October 29
October 30
GDP - Q3 (a) 2.8% 4.6 3.1
GDP Implicit Price Deflator 1.4 2.1 1.5
October 31
Personal Income - September 0.4% 0.3 0.3
Personal Spending 0.1 0.5 0.1
Employment Cost Index - Q3 0.4% 0.7 0.5
Employment Cost Index - Y/Y 2.0 2.0
Chicago PMI 59.5 60.5 59.5
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - October (r) 86.4 86.4
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.