Boy, are the Democrats screwed on this one!
Justice Stephen Breyer's resignation doesn't really amount to much of a shift in the judicial outlook for Supreme Court cases in the near future, as Joe Biden is merely tasked with replacing one liberal judicial activist with another liberal judicial activist. Given the current 6-3 (or sometimes 5-4) ideological split on the court, Breyer's replacement won't make a difference.
This is hardly Amy Coney Barret for Ruth Bader Ginsberg, right?
However, the internal politics at the Democratic Party Headquarters will be a side drama worth watching as Biden must carefully navigate through his commitment to defy all Federal Government discrimination laws and disregard all men, Caucasians, Latinos, and Asians to focus only on African-American women as potential replacements.
The last time Biden promised to exclusively choose an African-American woman for a top job, he picked Kamala Harris. So... it stands to reason that Kamala might be on his shortlist for this gig, too.
Let's play this out for a minute.
Kamala Harris is historically unpopular. As vice presidents go, she is bottoming out at unprecedented levels of unpopularity. And, in a bizarre development in modern American politics, the more exposure she gets and the more she is on camera at high-profile events in front of the American people, the more disdain she seems to engender.
Couple her unpopularity with her apparent incompetence (border czar, Senate vote wrangler, champion of the "voting rights bill"), and you have a formula for disaster for the administration and the Democrats.
You see, in a recent poll of Democrats, only 32% want Biden to be nominated for president in 2024. That poll, plus the growing suspicion that Biden might not even be physically up for a run in 2024, makes Kamala Harris the obvious next choice for the top of the ticket.
When Biden made her his Veep, the party was basically going all-in on Harris being in the presidential conversation for the next decade. And she is loathed by most Americans. Not good.
So... can they get rid of her by putting her on the Supreme Court? Sure! Theoretically.
Let's say he does. Let's say Kamala Harris moves to the Supreme Court. Now, Biden has to choose his new vice president.
The constitutional process for replacing a VP is pretty straightforward. The selection needs to be passed by a majority in the House and Senate. The last time this happened was when President Richard Nixon chose Vice President Gerald Ford. Ford was a long-serving member of the House of Representatives and was rather unobjectionable, moderate, and boring. He was approved without any drama.
Does anyone think Biden will pick someone like that?
Let's be clear... Biden won't be doing the picking. He'll choose whoever the party elders and the power base of the party want. And the power base of the party continues to be the more radical, socialist-leaning arm.
So, let's assume Biden's pick is someone who will appease the Omar/AOC/Bernie coalition.
Now, members of the House and Senate will have to vote for this radical nominee. In an election year.
While Senator Chuck Schumer tries to desperately cling to his 50-50 leadership, senators who are on the electoral bubble this year will have to approve of a socialist radical to be one heartbeat away from the presidency. While 29 Democrats have already announced their retirement from the House, almost guaranteeing a GOP sweep this Fall, the remaining Democrats will have to go on the record as well.
Then those same senators and congressmen will have to face their voters in November. You think the elevation of Senator Elizabeth Warren to vice president might be an issue for Arizona voters deciding whether they want to keep Senator Mark Kelly for six more years?
This is gonna be delicious.
But, let's say this political scenario is tenuous for Biden and his party, and they decide that it's too dangerous to have to face that fallout. Let's say they decide to keep Kamala Harris right where she is as vice president.
Well, that means they are stuck with her. They are stuck with her unpopularity. They are stuck with her incompetence. They are stuck with her cackle. They are stuck with her for the next ten years.
Heads Republicans win. Tails Democrats lose.
It's a conundrum. A Kamala conundrum. And there's no good solution.
Maybe this is what happens when you promise to pick "a black woman" instead of the very best, most qualified, effective person regardless of their sex or race.
They won't learn that lesson, though.
Yup. The Democrats are really screwed.