We Republicans have to not just win the Senate but win the Senate beyond the margin of Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins. If we have less than 53 Republicans in our coalition, it’s these two who are going to be running things and Mitch McConnell won’t be there to crack the whip and impose his iron discipline. But can we do it? We currently have 49 seats out of 100, but we have a pretty good map this year. That would normally mean that we’re well-positioned to win. Yet, we Republicans have a disadvantage. We’re Republicans, and far too often, we blow it.
Except this time, that doesn’t seem to be true. Things look good. There are some real fights going on, and we shouldn’t take any of them for granted. But the fundamentals are with us, the presidential election seems to be going our way despite the regime media orgasm over her marginal debate performance the other night, and we’ve got some good people running. We need to take the Senate, and we need, as a practical matter, about 53 seats to be able to support Donald Trump in making America great again.
We have a good shot at doing it, but it’s not a given. It’s not going to be easy. We could very easily not achieve it, especially if we don’t focus and work. But things are looking good in recent elections. The vast majority of contested Senate races went away from the presidential winner, and Trump’s looking pretty good.
But then, when I start feeling good, I start wondering if it’s confirmation bias. I want to win. I want to hear we are doing well. So, I reached out to my sources deep in the fight, folks who are actually working with the candidates or candidates themselves. They are telling me things are looking better overall. Said one deep insider: “Not overhyping our odds, but if the environment is good, lightning could strike and build a durable majority.”
Oh, it’s not going to be a walkover. It’s going to be a battle, and a Trump victory will be key. So, let’s see where everything is at from my perspective and from some of the candidates…
Let’s start with the gimmes. In West Virginia, Joe Manchin is sending himself off into retirement. There goes a Democrat seat in the reddest of America’s states. He will be replaced by their current governor, Jim Justice, who looks like he should be chasing Bo and Luke and the General Lee through the backroads in a sheriff’s cruiser. He’s a politician from another time, arguably a better time than this gender, confused communist nightmare era. He’s going to win, and the most important thing besides him providing the GOP’s 50th vote is that he will bring his awesome puppy, Ladydog, with him to Washington, DC.
Another done deal is Jim Banks in Indiana, where he’ll be replacing another, softer Republican. Banks is a Navy veteran and hardcore, and it looks like the Democrats are giving up even their faint hopes of success there. I asked him about the state of the race, and he told me that his “opponent had $15,000 cash on hand as of the last FEC report, and Democrats appear to be completely conceding Indiana to Republicans.” You love to hear it!
For some reason, the Democrats think they can beat Deb Fischer in Nebraska, and I want to encourage this delusion because I want them to spend money there. Spoiler alert: The Democrats are not going to win Nebraska.
The Democrats say they’re going to beat Rick Scott in Florida, which tells me that they aren’t waiting for the voters to pass the marijuana legalization initiative before getting high.
And, of course, the Democrats are imagining that they are going to turn Texas blue somehow and beat Ted Cruz with some liberal hack. It’s always fun to watch them Lucy and the football his Texas Senate races. Ted’s going to beat this dude like he beat the furry.
Montana is not a done deal, but it’s getting close.
The GOP voters in Montana did the smart thing and nominated Tim Sheehy to replace fake country guy John Tester. Sheehy’s campaign points out that “Tester claims to fight for Montanans, but he votes with Biden-Harris 95% of the time.” That seems to be a suboptimal argument for reelection. Tester is a professional politician who acts like a character from “Yellowstone” when he visits Montana and drives his Prius to Whole Foods to get tofu when he’s back home in Washington, D.C. Sheehy was a Navy SEAL, and the polls have him ahead. He’s likely to be seat 51.
Now things get more challenging. Ohio and Pennsylvania are the big targets, and I happen to know the nominees in both races. Bernie Moreno, who immigrated legally and made himself rich, is running in Ohio. He built himself a huge business, and, by coincidence, before he even got into politics, one of his companies happened to have an issue out in California, and I was the lawyer For his company. I remember noting that this CEO took a personal interest in that substantial, but not incredibly huge, case. I respect hands-on leadership. Bernie is a great guy and exactly what we need in The Swamp. The only thing I didn’t like about him was that he spoke Spanish with my wife, and I think they were talking smack about me!
I asked him about the state of the race in my home state: “We just got numbers out of the field and are tied - despite Sherrod spending $25 million over eight months. We just started our advertising and have Sherrod at the lowest point of his career. Voters are very smart and aren’t sending Sherrod Brown back to the Senate to stop President Trump’s agenda when he wins on November 5th!”
The Schlichters come from Pennsylvania, and Dave McCormick lived as a child in both towns where my parents grew up. Dave is a soldier – finally, somebody from the Army! - and I won’t hold him being a West Pointer against him. He went on to build a huge business, create jobs, and get rich, which real Americans understand to be a good thing. Dave is a genuine and down-to-earth guy, and I am particularly glad that he is a fellow Gulf War veteran because it’ll be nice to have somebody who was part of America’s last unequivocal victory helping to rebuild our military.
Some of the other races may be tougher, but they are winnable. I’ve gotten to know Kari Lake, and the fake regime media image of her is complete baloney. She’s down-to-earth, funny, and a smart and dedicated patriot. I think she is particularly wise for reaching out to moderate Republicans this time, trying to rebuild a state party that was shattered by internal division. But can she win? She told me: “The Arizona Senate race is a dead heat — AARP bipartisan polling shows it statistically tied. Club For Growth Polling shows the race tied. NRSC shows me leading by 1 point. President Trump is beating Harris by 4 points in recent New York Times polls.” Kari knows her state – she spent years talking to the people of Arizona as a newscaster, and only a fool would underestimate her potential against the outright Marxist lunatic she’s running against.
Sam Brown has a tough race in Nevada against a faceless Democrat hack. Another Army vet, Brown has a shot of riding Trump’s coattails to a surprise victory.
In Virginia, we have another Navy guy, Hung Cao. He’s got a tough but doable race. My fellow O6 told me that “the Virginia Senate race is one that will surprise everyone. President Trump knows this and that’s why he made Virginia a battleground state. Virginia wants change, and change can’t come from the same person that got us into high inflation, higher grocery and gas prices and higher interest rates.” I think he will be greatly helped if the Trump campaign puts some effort into Virginia, which may happen if Kamala completely melts down, something I believe is possible.
And then there is deep blue Maryland. Unlike New Hampshire, where a popular blue state governor wussed out, Larry Hogan stepped up. Look, I know he’s soft. But like Susan Collins, we’re never doing better than him in that pinko hellhole.
We’ve got good candidates: Mike Rogers in Michigan, Eric Hovde in Wisconsin, and Nella Domenici in New Mexico. But let’s face it, fax. If it isn’t a Trump landslide, it will be really hard to win these. That said, if you want to guarantee they lose, do nothing and don’t get out there and help.
So, we’re well positioned to get a majority, but a functioning and practical majority is more than just one seat. We need at least four turnovers, and right now, that is within reach. But in the end, it really depends on you. Pony up and get out and help. And if you aren’t in one of those states, pick a candidate and help him or her out. Make it happen, folks, we have to win this one and win it big if we are going to help Donald Trump make America great again.
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