What will be the next big uncertainty or concern that will push the markets into a major downturn? If we assume there could be one between now and the end of the summer, I suspect it will be due to the outlook on the upcoming November elections. I believe that by the end of August or beginning of September, if it appears as though liberals could gain control of The House of Representatives or the Senate, it could have a devastating impact on the economy. Of course, not many will want to admit this could be a problem, but the fact is that even the liberals on Wall Street must admit that do-nothing Congress for the next two years will not be good for economic growth.
The idea that President Trump’s pro-growth agenda could be stalled won’t be good news for economic growth or market returns. This result could turn into a two-year waiting period for the next presidential election, as opposed to a two-week waiting period after the dust settles on some poor economic news or geo-political event, such as those we have suffered through recently in the markets. The markets are strong, just as the economic fundamentals are strong, but I don’t believe we can withstand a Congress that is back to doing what they do best—and have done over eight years of the past administration. Doing nothing will not move us forward in a positive direction.
As we stress over what could happen during the November elections, one thing we have clearly learned is that polls are seldom correct. Regardless, most Americans will believe them and either become stressed or joyful, depending on which way they’re leaning. But the polls will likely be wrong again this November.
The miscalculation during the presidential election didn’t take into account those who voted for what they knew deep down was right for America. And as hard as the Clinton campaign tried to predict a win, that election will go down in history as one of the greatest miscalculations in the history of American politics. So I guess we can hope for more of the same in November, but I suspect that the markets, come August and September, will watch the polls very closely.
If you were one of the people who held hands with your friends, crying after the past presidential election, or if you were one who screamed at the sky with tears running down your face because of the outcome, an election you thought you had pegged because of Trump’s relationship with Russia, or if you’re still wearing your Hillary t-shirt, or if you still believe every single detail the liberal fake news puts out about this White House, then you are likely someone who is convinced that the evils of conservatives and this president are far worse than any American should have to bear.
But if you are one who is enjoying your increase in your pay, appreciating the fact that you have greater opportunity for advancement in your company or moving up to a new job, or if you are someone who enjoys the fact that all your friends have jobs now and can buy their own beer, then maybe you are someone who is enjoying the new consumer confidence you see all around you. Maybe you’re someone who understands that lower tax rates, lower poverty rates, lower unemployment and higher wages are simply good outcomes for all of us.
I would like to take a moment to remind you that when you vote this November, you can walk out of the polling booth, scream at the sky, retweet all the fake news about this administration and Republicans, have a drink with your buddies and talk about your dreams of moving to Denmark. You can even talk about all the wonderful merits of socialism, socialized medicine and retirement at age 56. You can still say all this, because no one will ever know who you voted for, even if it was a Republican. You can vote for prosperity and no one will ever know; you can vote for free markets, higher wages, lower unemployment, lower poverty rates, lower taxes and a thriving economy where your odds of prospering through new opportunities and economic growth will continue to benefit YOU. And no one will be the wiser that you voted for the American dream.
This November is a time for you to vote with your pocketbook, your true self-centeredness and hidden capitalist ideology. Then go scream at the sky, put on your “Never Trump” hat and enjoy your drink with your friends as you talk about life in some wonderful socialist country with a 65 percent tax rate.
No one will ever know what and whom you voted for, and all the while you can boast over a toast to the Democratic Party.
(Dan Celia is president and CEO of Financial Issues Stewardship Ministries, Inc., and host of the nationally syndicated radio and television program “Financial Issues,” heard daily on more than 640 stations across the country and reaching millions of households on the National Religious Broadcasters Network, BizTV, Dove-TV and others. Visit www.financialissues.org.)