I watched the Asian markets open Monday and, initially, it was down they go. Japan then China and without intervention beyond some capital infusions to money markets, but nothing to prop the market. And, then they began to turn.
Wow! Markets acting like markets and investors stepping up because they sensed opportunity not at gunpoint or government seduction. There was an Adam Smith victory. The invisible hand rather than the heavy hand of government.
Alas, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) did decide to cut rates, although it wasn't the nuclear option, it might be good enough for interventionist junkies.
Here in America, there appears to be more calm as well. I think Monday's open was a flash crash and the rest of the session was angst not just over economies valuations and central bank planning, but the system itself.
One high frequency trading firm said it was their biggest day ever.
On the NYSE 151 stocks advanced, 3,075 declined, while only 3 reached new 52 week highs against 1,230 hitting new lows. On the NASDAQ, the score was 265 to 2,501 advance to decline with 11 new highs against 688 lows.
Key support levels for Dow
- 15698
- 15370
Resistance levels for Dow
- 16333
- 16459
Perhaps investors are willing to live with idea that China is out of bullets and they're not only ones. The Fed has nothing. The ECB has nothing. It's time for markets to follow the free market drum. To that end, historically stocks were harbingers of things to come.
If things are going to get better, stocks should reflect as much within reason. The same if things around the corner are going to get worst. I'm not sure our economy gets to 4 percent growth in second half of the year, but it should be better than the first.
In the end, I believe in owning individual companies that are heavily discounted, taking share, growing margins, having great pipelines and great management. The shenanigans in China doesn't alter this much, not their markets and maybe their economy, but on case by case basis, not really.
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It took 1,400 days for the Dow to make an official correction, but the turmoil under the hood had been there for close to two months. There are lots of oversold names if America isn't entering a deflationary death spiral...I've been to the supermarket and movie theater and I can say on Main Street the last concern is things are too cheap.
Stocks are, but we proceed with caution.
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