Some things never seem to change. The Mercatus Institute recently released a study about American moving trends, and the overall gist isn’t surprising: those in blue states are still picking up and heading to red ones.
States like New York, ranked number one for outbound movers, have long counted their own people as their number one export. Electing socialists like Zohran Mamdani, who are hostile to businesses and taxpayers, probably doesn’t help.
According to Mercatus, the number one destination for relocating Americans is the proudly Republican state of Idaho. And as Chris Cargill writes, “Washington was Idaho’s single largest source of newcomers, followed closely by California.”
This stark contrast between the West Coast and the rest of the West is impossible to ignore. Those from Washington who leave for Idaho, Montana, or even Texas are taking their aspirations, their small businesses, and their taxpayer dollars with them.
At a time of economic peril in Seattle, we can’t allow this to continue.
Political leaders need a plan for economic renewal to help stop this mass migration. Unfortunately, Democrats seem to prefer doubling down on what hasn’t worked.
If you live or do business in Seattle, the strain on the region’s economy is palpable. Layoffs have continued to ripple through the area, and many workers and employers are feeling the effects of high costs, weak housing demand, and growing uncertainty about the city’s business climate.
Seattle has become one of the most expensive places in the country to live, and that cost burden is making it harder for both individuals and companies to stay competitive. According to the Association of Washington Business, nearly one in four Washington employers is considering moving out of state. That should be a warning sign for policymakers who want to keep the region economically healthy. And it should be a red flag for employees working in the area.
The housing market reflects that pressure. Redfin data shows homebuying demand in Seattle is falling faster than in many other major U.S. markets. High prices, combined with layoffs in the tech sector, are discouraging would-be buyers and pushing many to remain in expensive rentals instead.
The labor market tells a similar story. Seattle-based Starbucks chose Nashville for an expansion rather than its hometown and, shortly afterward, announced 200 layoffs. Zillow recently cut 500 jobs, including 93 in Puget Sound. Salesforce eliminated 59 jobs in the area, and Meta has cut roughly 3,000 local jobs in recent years while also putting its Bellevue office space up for lease.
Even beyond tech, some companies are choosing to invest elsewhere. Seattle-based wood products company The Lumber Manufactory Inc. recently announced plans for a $16 million wood-processing facility in Alabama that will create 59 jobs there instead of in Washington.
One bright spot for the region is Boeing, which recently announced a $1 billion investment in a production facility in Everett. That investment could bring welcome stability to a region that badly needs it.
But Boeing also faces its own labor challenges. The company is in contract negotiations with the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace, whose members recently rejected a proposed deal that included a nearly 29 percent pay increase over four years and improved benefits. That’s generous for a company that’s still in debt. In a tougher economic environment, workers may want to think carefully before risking jobs and stability for hopes of a hypothetical better one — especially one that doesn’t seem to exist.
Complicating matters further, Washington lawmakers and Governor Bob Ferguson approved a law earlier this year that would provide unemployment benefits to striking workers. Supporters see that as a worker protection; critics argue it gives unions little incentive to settle quickly.
Seattle and the broader Puget Sound region still have enormous economic strengths. But if housing remains unaffordable, business costs stay high, and labor disputes continue to escalate, more companies may decide that states with lower costs and fewer hurdles offer a better place to grow. And people may continue to leave.
As I recently wrote, Washington lawmakers may not get it, but governors from lower-cost, business-friendly states certainly do. If you start to see more labor union strikes in Washington, Idaho, Montana, Florida, and Texas will be champing at the bit to lure these legacy businesses to their states.
We can’t allow this kind of economic mismanagement to continue. The Mercatus research makes clear that states with high taxes, unaffordable housing, and frustrating labor disputes are losing out.
If Washington Democrats want to do better, they shouldn’t double down on what hasn’t worked. They should take a cue from their friends to the east.
Brett M. Decker is the Endowed Chair of Leadership at Northwood University. He is a New York Times bestselling author, former Senior Vice President of Communications at Export-Import Bank of the United States, former Editorial Page Writer for The Wall Street Journal, and former Senior Vice President, Foundation at Pentagon Federal Credit Union.
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