Two New Polls Show Blackburn Leading Bredesen in TN Senate Race

Leah Barkoukis | October 31, 2018 6:30 AM

Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn is leading Democrat Phil Bredesen by at least 5 percentage points in two new polls of the Tennessee Senate race.

One is an NBC/Marist poll, which has Blackburn with 51 percent support of likely voters while Bredesen has 46 percent support. This poll of 417 likely voters was conducted between Oct. 23-27 and has a margin of error of 5.7 percentage points.

The other poll from Vox Populi Polling shows Blackburn ahead of Bredesen, a former governor for the state, by 6 points—53 percent to 47 percent. This survey of 780 “active voters” was taken between Oct. 27-29 and has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

In recent months these same two polls showed Bredesen leading Blackburn by 2 percentage points.

Blackburn's lead coincides with soaring popularity for President Donald Trump, who now has support of 56 percent of likely voters in the NBC/Marist poll, compared with 39 percent who don't support his job performance. That's compared with 47 percent who approved of the president and 43 percent who disagreed with him two months ago. (The Tennessean)

"The shift in Blackburn's favor may be a dose of political reality for Bredesen in Tennessee, where President Donald Trump won by 26 points in 2016," says an NBC/Marist analysis of the poll results. "The poll's sample shows that 43 percent of likely voters identify as Republicans, while just 27 percent identify as Democrats."

"In the weeks leading up to Election Day, Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn has rallied Republican voters to help solidify her base," said Macy Cambio, Vox Populi Polling managing director, reports The Tennessean. “The chance of this seat flipping Democratic looks much slimmer than it did just one month ago."

Three other polls from October also show Blackburn leading Bredesen.

The Daily Wire notes: “A Fox News poll ending October 2 found Blackburn with a five-point lead; a CBS/YouGov poll ending October 5 gave her an eight-point lead, and a NY Times/Siena college poll ending October 11 gave her a fourteen-point lead.”