I’m a supporter of a single-rate tax regime, especially if there’s no double taxation of income that is saved and invested.
That’s why I like the flat tax.
But I’ve expressed concern about the national sales tax, even though it’s basically the same as a flat tax (the only real difference is that the flat tax takes a bite out of your income when it is earned, while the sales tax takes a bite of your income as it is spent).
The reason for my skepticism is that I don’t trust politicians. I fear that they will adopt a sales tax, but never replace the income.
As a result, we’ll wind up like Europe, with much bigger government.
And also much more red ink – even though politicians claim tax hikes and new taxes will lead to balanced budgets.
I’m not just being paranoid. Not only is this what occurred in Europe, the same thing is now happening in Japan.
Here’s some of what the Wall Street Journal has to say about “reforms” to the value-added tax in the land of the rising sun.
Japan on Tuesday increased its consumption tax to 8% from 5%. An increase to 10% is written into the law for next year, and don’t imagine for a minute that this will be the last. Welcome to the value-added-tax ratchet, which only goes in one direction—up. Tokyo first imposed a 3% consumption tax in 1989, after politicians had tried for a decade to enact one. …The new tax was billed as part of a tax reform, but the reform never materialized.
And as I warned in a prior column, the VAT has become a recipe for bigger government in Japan.
The new tax didn’t solve Japan’s deficit woes, as the debt to GDP ratio climbed to 50%, so in 1997 politicians increased the rate to 5%. Again politicians promised the increase would be offset by income-tax reforms. Again the reform proved illusory. …The additional revenue still didn’t satisfy Tokyo’s spending ambitions, and debt has since climbed well above 200% of GDP despite the VAT increase. …So now the rate is going up again in the name of, you guessed it, shoring up government finances as the population ages.
The OECD likes this development, which is hardly a surprise, but it’s bad news for those of us who favor growth and opportunity.
Japan’s experience points up the broader political problem with a value-added tax wherever it has been imposed. Economists tout the VAT for generating revenue without creating disincentives to work and invest. But in practice the consumption levy merely becomes one more tax in addition to current taxes and thus one more claim by the political class on the private economy. …The lesson for tax reformers elsewhere, not least in America, is to beware the VAT because once it is imposed it is only going up.
And it’s worth noting that the Europeans also have been increasing the VAT in recent years.
Simply stated, this is a levy to finance bigger government.
I elaborate in my video on the VAT.
P.S. You can see some amusing – but also painfully accurate – cartoons about the VAT by clicking here, here, and here.
P.P.S. I also very much recommend what George Will wrote about the value-added tax.
P.P.P.S. I’m also quite amused that the IMF accidentally provided key evidenceagainst the VAT.