Michael Barone

The race for the Republican presidential nomination finally seems to be gelling. On Wednesday night, candidates debated at the Reagan Library in California -- the first of five scheduled debates over the next five weeks.

They are competing for a nomination that increasingly seems worth having. In July and August, President Obama's job approval has been dropping like a stone. On July 4, the realclearpolitics.com average of recent polls showed it narrowly positive, 47 to 46 percent. On Tuesday, it was negative, 43 to 51 percent.

Obama's approval hasn't topped 46 percent in a public poll since mid-July. It hasn't topped 50 percent in a public poll since mid-June.

Nevertheless, none of the current candidates outperforms the generic "Republican candidate." The seven weeks ahead provide an opportunity for one or more Republican candidates to improve their standing not only among Republican primary and caucus voters but among the general electorate, as well.

Political reporters always like to anoint one candidate as the front-runner. But there hasn't been a real front-runner in the Republican race so far.

Yes, Mitt Romney led in most polls taken up through early August. But I was right to scoff at the notion early in the year that Romney was a real front-runner and wrong when I relented later and said he had earned that status.

Romney's early lead was largely the product of name identification gained through his unsuccessful run in 2008. Yet if you look at the primary returns and exit polls that year, he lacked any strong core constituency.

He won his highest percentages in high-income suburbs, but not stunningly high percentages. And high-income suburbs are no longer the dominant force in today's expanded Republican electorate.

Romney's weakness became apparent when Rick Perry zoomed ahead in polls in August. Romney's percentage in the realclearpolitics.com average declined from about 25 percent in July and early August to 17 percent today.

Perry's percentage rose from 13 percent in the first week of the month to 20 percent by the last full week and 29 percent now. A two-to-one Romney lead became a three-to-two Perry lead in a few weeks' time.

But how well do voters outside Texas know Rick Perry? They know that he is governor of the second-largest state and that Texas has produced the lion's share of the nation's new jobs in recent years -- the percentage depends on where you put the beginning and end points of the comparison.


Michael Barone

Michael Barone, senior political analyst for The Washington Examiner (www.washingtonexaminer.com), is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a Fox News Channel contributor and a co-author of The Almanac of American Politics. To find out more about Michael Barone, and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com. COPYRIGHT 2011 THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER. DISTRIBUTED BY CREATORS.COM