Brian and Garrett Fahy
In 2000 and 2004, before the advent of the Tea Party, George W. Bush won Nevada, Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and the White House. In 2008, Barack Obama did the same. This year, Mr. Obama is unlikely to repeat this accomplishment. According to recent polling, these states, save Indiana, are up for grabs.

According to RealClearPolitics, Mitt Romney is up Florida and North Carolina, within the margin of error in Virginia and Colorado, within striking distance in Nevada, and Indiana “leans GOP.” More problematic for President Obama, Romney has turned Michigan into a swing state, where in the largest poll to date he leads the president by two points.

Nationally, in the Rasmussen generic congressional ballot, which gauges the public’s preference for a Republican or Democratic representative, the GOP leads by seven points.’s Ed Morrissey notes the GOP held roughly the same advantage at this time in 2010, months before the GOP gained sixty-three House seats in a historic landslide propelled by the Tea Party. The same Rasmussen poll shows Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama by four points.

Beyond the Beltway, the stage is being set for an epic GOP win on the national and local levels. Several intrastate events presage such an event and provide plentiful evidence that stories of the Tea Party’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.

In Wisconsin, Republican governor Scott Walker endured vicious personal attacks against him, his family, and his lieutenant governor, and then soundly defeated organized labor’s effort to recall him. Walker raised more money, and ably demonstrated how his contentious public sector employee reforms had inarguably successful results. More ominous for organized labor, Walker won thirty-eight percent of the union vote in the process.

The reality check towards sound fiscal governance occurring in Wisconsin was likewise on display in California (of all places), where voters in San Diego and San Jose voted to reform public employee benefits. These results suggest three takeaways: small government voters (Tea Partiers) nationwide are paying attention, donating and voting; public sector union benefits vastly disproportionate to private sector benefits, especially during a time of continued recession and historic unemployment, are a nonstarter; and independents in even liberal states are recognizing the need to support politicians who take political risks to avoid fiscal catastrophe.

Brian and Garrett Fahy

Brian and Garrett Fahy are attorneys from Los Angeles who previously worked in the White House and Senate Republican Conference, respectively. They write on national legal and political affairs. They can be reached at