Brandon J. Gaylord- Editor, HorseRacePolitics.com, graduated from George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management. Brandon got his start in politics as an intern in Vice President Richard Cheney’s Office of Political Affairs.
The conventional wisdom used to be that incumbents polling below 50 percent were in trouble because undecided voters broke heavily towards the challenger. Incumbents could only expect to receive roughly the same percentage on Election Day as their last poll number.
Despite conservative talkers urging Karl Rove to exit stage left, Republicans desperately need Rove.
Nate Silver has pumped vast quantities of polls, surveys, and other data into his election model. Dick Morris has one theory and a gut feel for the race. The two election prognosticators could not be farther apart in their methodology or their projected outcomes. Silver predicts a close, but very likely victory for President Obama. Morris projects a win for Romney that exceeds Republicans’ wildest expectations.
For most of President Obama’s tenure in office, Gallup’s Presidential approval polls have shown the President performing at lower levels than most other pollsters. Their polls were often used by Republicans to support the narrative that the President and his policies were unpopular.