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Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Thomas Sowell :: Townhall.com Columnist
Dangerous Demagoguery: Part II
by Thomas Sowell
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Data based on following actual flesh-and-blood individuals over time are, however, also available. The statistics quoted above are from the Treasury Department, which has people's income tax returns, so it is no problem for them to follow the same people over the years.

You can check out the numbers for yourself in a November 13, 2007 report from the Treasury Department titled "Income Mobility in the United States from 1996 to 2005." You can find a summary of the same data in a Wall Street Journal editorial that same day.

These are not the only data that tell a diametrically opposite story from the usual political and media story that the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer.

A previous Treasury Department study showed similar patterns in individual income changes between 1979 and 1988.

Moreover, a study conducted at the University of Michigan, following the same individuals over an even longer span of time, likewise found most people moving from income bracket to income bracket over time -- especially among those who began in the bottom 20 percent.

The University of Michigan Panel Survey on Income Dynamics showed that, among people who were in the bottom 20 percent income bracket in 1975, only 5 percent were still in that category in 1991. Nearly six times as many of them were now in the top 20 percent in 1991.

There was a summary of the University of Michigan data in the 1995 annual report of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, which also issued an excerpt titled "By Our Own Bootstraps."

Among the intelligentsia, it is fashionable to sneer at income mobility as a "Horatio Alger myth" -- and, as someone once said, you cannot refute a sneer. But, among people who have not yet abandoned facts for rhetoric, it is worth stopping to consider whether they are being played for fools by politicians and much of the media.

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About The Author
Thomas Sowell is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institute and author of The Housing Boom and Bust.
 
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©Creators Syndicate
Life is about decisions
When my daughter was young she asked "Daddy what is the difference between a conservative and a liberal?" I responded "A conservative believes they are responsible for their decisions and actions - a liberal believes someone else is responsible for their decisions and actions."

F1etch
Here's some help for you. From the period 1947 to date, the standard deviation, including the two outlier extremes, is $17.88 per barrel of oil. The average over this period is $32.99, he median is $24.36. The current price of oil is more than three standard deviations from the expected mean. How is it that oil prices are no big deal again? Oh yeah, using your stultified logic, they are no big deal because they are only now near the only other period of time in which it was three std dev's from the mean. Real critical thinking there.

Take out the outliers and the std dev drops to $4.50 a barrel.

Off to work.


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