As Townhall has been covering throughout Monday, we've just seen some bad poll numbers for President Joe Biden, especially when it comes to The New York Tmes/Siena College in his rematch against former and potentially future President Donald Trump. This is especially the case in key battleground states. We keep saying it because the polls continue to look bad for the deeply unpopular incumbent president overall, and in these must-win states. This election is sure to be close and competitive, and it's likely that the race will come down to these handful of states. Even the mainstream media is freaking out, CNN included.
Harry Enten often provides thoughtful as well as candid coverage on the election, and not just when it comes to CNN's own polls. Monday was no different, and he discussed "a divide between the sunbelt and Great Lake battleground states," reminding how these are all six states that Joe Biden won last time around," and that Biden "won them by the closest margin of any of these states he won."
Such states included Nevada, where Trump's up by +13 and Biden won by +2.4 in 2020; Georgia, where Trump's up by +9 and Biden won by +0.2 in 2020; Arizona, where Trump's up by +6 and Biden won by +0.3 in 2020; Pennsylvania, where Trump's up by +3 and Biden won by +1.2 in 2020; Wisconsin, where Trump's up by +1 and Biden won by +0.7 in 2020; and Michigan, where Biden's up +1 and where he won by +2.8 in 2020.
Pointing to the first three, Enten emphasized how "frankly for the Joe Biden campaign, these numbers are an absolute disaster, especially as Trump's "smallest lead" is in Arizona. Speaking of Nevada, Enten was particularly animated as he highlighted "my goodness, gracious, my God, that is a huge lead. No Democrat has lost that state since John Kerry lost it back in 2004.
Enten offered that the latter three "is something that the Joe Biden campaign can work with," especially as he reminded those leads for Biden and Trump are "well within the margin of error," which ranges from plus or minus 3.6 percentage points to plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
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Here's my deal on the NYT polling out this AM. The Sun Belt battlegrounds are an abject disaster for Biden, & NYT is not the first to show that.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) May 13, 2024
The Great Lakes battlegrounds are something Biden's campaign can work with. It leaves him a (narrow) path to 270 at this point pic.twitter.com/gkM7pppR3K
When discussing with Kate Bolduan why it he thinks that "Biden is doing better in the Great Lakes and Trump is doing so much better in the Sunbelt," Enten pointed to how "the Trump coalition is changing." Specifically, it's getting less white than it was in 2020, from 84 to 78 percent, and he's also earning more support from non-white voters, from 78 to 19 percent. "So, the Trump coalition is becoming more diverse. And, of course, those Sunbelt battleground states are more diverse than the Great Lake battleground states," Enten added. He even emphasized how the three states where Trump is polling best have more diverse populations.
Enten had pointed out how the Trump campaign "absolutely loves" such numbers, and sure enough the Trump War Room X account shared a clip.
Perhaps an ever present reminder as any that there's still almost 6 months to go until the November election, Enten pointed out when discussing "the race to 270" that "it's advantage Donald Trump, but he's not over the 270 mark just yet."
"AN ABSOLUTE DISASTER": President Trump post MASSIVE leads in battleground states over Crooked Joe Biden in New York Times poll.
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) May 13, 2024
NEVADA: Trump +13
GEORGIA: Trump +9
ARIZONA: Trump +6
PENNSYLVANIA: Trump +3
WISCONSIN: Trump +1 pic.twitter.com/f92WSa7i4l
Per Enten's points about diverse coalitions, The New York Times' headline about the polling results did highlight how "Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden."
Trump has an edge over Biden with most of the age groups. Among those 18-29, Trump is at a 46 to 43 percent lead in a head-to-head combined with leaners, but the margins for his leads only get better for him from there. Trump's up 48-40 percent among those 30-44, and is up 53-39 percent among those 45-64. Biden is up 48-45 percent among those over 65, but this could be an outlier, given that the AARP poll from Pennsylvania last week showed good news for Trump among older voters.
Among white respondents, Trump is up 54-39 percent over Biden, and he's also up 45-39 percent among those described as "other." Biden only has 63 percent support among black leaders, and while it's an obvious lead over Trump's 23 percent support, the 63 percent figure is a low one for Biden, while 23 percent is high for Trump. Biden also only has a slight edge among Hispanics, 45-42 percent over Trump.
Speaking of 2020 coalitions, Trump is holding onto more of his voters from 2020 than Biden is. Ninety-four percent of those who voted for Trump in 2020 say they'll do so again, while that number is at 86 percent for Biden. Close to a majority of those who didn't vote in 2020, at 49 percent, say they'll vote for Trump, while just 32 say they'll vote for Biden, and 20 percent were in the "don't know/refused" category. The poll also includes a plurality of voters, at 40 percent, who said they voted for Biden in 2020, while 37 percent voted for Trump. When excluding the 18 percent who did not vote, 49 percent said they voted for Biden and 46 percent voted for Trump in 2020.
Trump also has 92 percent of Republican voters, while Biden has 88 percent of Democrats. There's also an advantage for Trump among Independent voters, 48-39 percent.
Van Jones was also on "CNN News Central" to discuss the poll results, during which Bolduan highlighted that "Mr. Trump also wins more than 20 percent of black voters, a tally that would be the highest level of black support for any Republican presidential candidates since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act in 1964."
"It should be a wakeup call. Young people are upset," Jones acknowledged. To his credit, he didn't go with the narrative we've heard time and time again from the mainstream media since Israel was attacked last October 7 by Hamas terrorists. "And it's not just the situation in Gaza. The economic prospects for young people are miserable. It's not--and that's been building under Obama, it's been building under Trump, it's building under Biden. We just do not have a pathway for young people to be able to pay off their student debt, get a house People are look at this AI wave and are worried about what job, what career path," Jones continued.
Jones also took issue with the Biden response, noting "that pain has to be spoken to directly and specifically, and I think that we're not--we're not yet feeling--hearing a full-throated approach to the young people. There's a symbolic piece around student loans. That's not going to be enough for Joe Biden."
That's a big deal to hear, considering Biden himself spoke to CNN's Erin Burnett last Wednesday to rant and rave about how people should be more appreciative about the economy, even using false figures as he did so.
Cygnal President Brent Buchanan weighed in on the poll on Monday morning as part of the top three stories he was "tracking" for the day. Similar to Enten, he went with a "sun belt" versus "rust belt" narrative.
"Sunbelt states (like AZ & GA) are nearly gone for Biden, leaving PA, WI and MI, of which he'd need to sweep them all. The Rust Belt states have high populations of ticked-off, diverse, working-class voters, a key group that will decide the election - they also happen to be the ones hurt most by Biden's economic policies and continuing inflation," he said, when discussing The New York Times' coverage highlighting how "Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden."
Buchanan also linked to Cygnal's own polling from last month, which we also covered at the time, highlighting how those "ticked-off" voters are "both an ppportunity and a challenge for Republicans."
