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Here's What a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Would Mean for the Rest of the World

Spencer Brown / Townhall

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TAIPEI, Taiwan — "Taiwan matters for the entire global economy, and because it matters for the global economy it matters for Kentucky's economy." That's how Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY) — co-chair of the Congressional Taiwan Caucus — explained his concern for the future of the Republic of China in an interview with Townhall following a day of meetings in Taipei. 

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Businesses and workers in his district encircling Lexington rely on Taiwan, Barr said, including at the world's largest Toyota manufacturing facility. The Georgetown, Kentucky, plant can crank out more than 500,000 vehicles per year and employs just shy of 10,000 full-time workers. 

"If you think about the way automobiles are manufactured right now, they require a lot of electronics," Barr emphasized to Townhall of the ubiquity of semiconductors. "Ninety percent of the world's advanced semiconductors are manufactured here in Taiwan," he said the industry that's become another deterring factor against a Chinese invasion, the "silicon shield." 

Reiterating the message of R.O.C. President Lai's inauguration speech delivered just more than one week before Barr and the rest of the U.S. congressional delegation led by House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul arrived in Taiwan to meet the new president, the Kentucky Republican said "peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are indispensable for global security and prosperity." In addition, "'Peace through strength' deterrence and defending Taiwan is squarely within the national security interest of the United States."

"The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company [TSMC], the largest manufacturer of advanced semiconductors in the world, is right in the pathway of a — God forbid — Chinese Communist Party [and] People's Liberation Army amphibious invasion of this island," Barr explained in his sit-down with Townhall. "The entire global economy would be disrupted massively within hours of something like that happening [and] Americans would instantly see a disruption in their consumer electronics and the automobile supply chain," he warned. 

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Estimates cited by Barr say that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan "would result in a $2 trillion hit to the global economy," another reason why Taiwan "matters to everyday ordinary Americans," he said. "Whether we like it or not, we cannot ignore the U.S. economic interdependency with the world."

Those who don't think Taiwan matters, Barr argued, belong to the "voices of isolationism in both parties in the United States" based on "wishful thinking."

"We can all wish that we can be immune from global events, but that is complete and utter naïveté," Barr continued. "The reality is we have to know what's going on in global affairs to protect our own peace, stability, and economic prosperity. Ignoring what happens over here is a recipe for disaster for our own interests," he said of China's escalating hostility and harassment aimed at the Republic of China.  

"Taiwan's security and peaceful future is interconnected with our own, whether we like it or not — that is just a fact," Barr emphasized. "Taiwan is geographically right in between two critical allies of the United States — the Philippines and Japan — they're on the first island chain," he explained. "A Taiwan overrun by Communist authoritarian China would give Communist China open access to the Pacific with their submarines" and "would create doubt in the minds of our allies in the Indo-Pacific about the U.S. fulfilling its commitments to others."

The threat of such a Chinese offensive continues to grow.

"It's clear that the operational tempo of these exercises has changed and it's accelerated to the point where a lot of these exercises are now happening on the eastern side of the island, it's clearly a trial run or practice for an encirclement or a blockade of the island," Barr told Townhall of the recent CCP drills around Taiwan. "To the extent the Taiwan Relations Act exists to maintain the status quo, it's pretty obvious that the Chinese Communist Party is trying to disrupt the status quo — and this is not the status quo," he added of the intensifying harassment. 

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The CCP's ongoing and escalating hostility toward Taiwan, Barr added, "only reinforces the resolve of the U.S. Congress to enhance our military assistance to the island."

It's not just up to the U.S., said Barr. It's also about what Taiwan is "prepared to do on its own, separate and apart from U.S. assistance to make itself into that 'porcupine' that it needs to be to strengthen deterrence" against the Chinese. Following meetings in Taiwan this week, Barr said he is "very encouraged" that President Lai and the government in Taiwan will "build upon the success" of the previous administration when it comes to ramping up defensive and deterrent capabilities. 

That involves a "whole of society approach to make sure that there's resiliency built up among the civilian population to, again, make Taiwan into a porcupine."

"The United States is fully and completely committed to maintaining the peaceful status quo and maintaining peace and stability in the strait," Barr reiterated to Townhall. "The successful inauguration and the fair and free election that was just concluded here is a testament, not just to a particular election, but it is a victory for democracy — and Taiwan is a beacon of freedom that projects out into the world beyond this shadow of communist authoritarianism."

Taiwan's vibrant democracy that just again proved itself with the recent elections and peaceful transition of power means "not just the United States, but democracies all over the world stand in unity in a massive multilateral coalition in solidarity with Taiwan," Barr reminded. "It's not just about the United States and Taiwan — the whole democratic world stands with Taiwan."

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