Former President Donald Trump has been leading the ever-shrinking field of 2024 Republican presidential hopefuls, and a new national primary election poll from Morning Consult has the 45th president leading the pack by a whopping 50 points as 2023 enters its final weeks and the first early state primary contests approach.
Conducted November 24 to 26, the survey showed Trump earning support from 64 percent of Republican primary voters, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 14 percent, former Ambassador Nikki Haley with 10 percent, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy with 6 percent, and former Governor Chris Christie with 3 percent.
Trump's already significant lead could grow, according to Morning Consult, because 29 percent — a "plurality of non-Trump supporters" — listed the former president as their second choice for 2024. "Such voters make up roughly 10% of the GOP’s expected electorate, suggesting that the former president’s support could continue to grow if lower-polling contenders drop their bids."
After the primaries, Trump faces another general election battle against Joe Biden, a contest in which his prospects look bright at present with the biggest advantage in the RealClearPolitics polling average of his career.
"Trump leads Biden by 2.6 percentage points nationally in the RealClearPolitics Average," explained RealClearPolitics Senior Elections Analyst Sean Trende in a piece titled "Not Only Can Trump Win, Right Now He's the Favorite To Win."
"This is Trump’s largest lead in the RCP average to date," Trende noted. "Not for 2024, mind you. Ever."
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In the former president's first presidential campaign, "Trump led Hillary Clinton for all of five days in the national RCP Average, each of those days in the immediate aftermath of the Republican convention," Trende reminded. "He led in 29 polls taken over the course of the entire campaign, 10 of which are recorded in the RCP averages as Los Angeles Times/USC tracking polls."
Some four years ago in his re-election campaign, "Trump never led Biden in the national RCP Average," reminded Trende. "He briefly closed to within four points in early January of 2020, but that is it. He led in five polls all cycle." This time around, Trump has "led in more polls in the past three weeks than he did against Biden in all of 2019-2020," Trende's analysis found.
At the state level, Trump is also blowing away his previous poll performances, as outlined by Trende for RCP:
Trump leads in the RCP Average in Michigan for the first time, ever.
Pennsylvania? He leads for the first time ever, and has led in most polls.
He narrowly trails Biden in Wisconsin but has already led in almost as many polls as he led in the state in 2016 and 2020 combined. His 0.7% deficit compares to his previous best showing in the state: A 3.5% deficit in August of 2020.
Florida? Trump has led or tied in every poll, including some double-digit leads.
Arizona? He leads by five in the RCP Average.
Georgia? He leads by six.
Ohio? Polling is sparse, but he leads by 10.
Still, Trende's analysis made clear that current polling "absolutely" does not mean Trump will win on Election Day in 2024. There's a lot that can change between today and the next 300+ days along with almost endless ways in which Americans' views on Biden's policies and Trump's candidacy could change over the next year.
But, as things stand now, "Trump is better positioned in the polls to win this election than any GOP nominee since at least 2004," Trende concluded.
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