GOP Enthusiasm Foreshadows Midterm Advantage

Posted: Jul 26, 2014 11:30 AM
GOP Enthusiasm Foreshadows Midterm Advantage

If enthusiasm is any indicator of success, the Republican Party is in for a riveting season of midterm elections. GOP voters are more confident and exuberant about heading to the polls this year than their Democrat counterparts, a recent Pew Research Center report found.

Today, the Republicans lead on a number of key engagement indicators, though in some cases by smaller margins than four years ago. Currently, 45% of registered voters who plan to support the Republican in their district say they are more enthusiastic about voting than in prior congressional elections; that compares with 37% of those who plan to vote for the Democratic candidate. The GOP had a 13-point enthusiasm advantage at this point in the midterm campaign four years ago (55% to 42%) and the Democrats held a 17-point advantage eight years ago (47% to 30%).

However, as many voters who support the Republican in their district say they are “absolutely certain” to vote this fall as said this in June 2010. Three-quarters of Republican voters (76%) say they are absolutely certain to vote, compared with 67% of Democratic voters. Four years ago, 77% of Republican voters and 64% of Democratic voters said they were absolutely certain to vote in the fall.

This report came out several months after a Gallup poll showed Democrats are the least eager to vote out of all the political parties. Gallup also demonstrated the correlation between party energy and overall advantage.

General elections are not until November. So, while it may be too early to tell, this analysis of the voter landscape is looking positive for the Republican party.