Polling gurus are predicting a Trump win this November as long as he remains just one percentage point above Vice President Kamala Harris.
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten pointed out that the 2024 election has been one of the closest races in 60 years, suggesting that even a single point could tip the win for either candidate. Enten noted that so far in the race, there have been zero days where one candidate was ahead by at least five points nationally. Looking at polling averages from 1964 to 2020, each race has seen at least three weeks in which one candidate had a five-point advantage.
Among the seven crucial key states, the two candidates have been neck and neck, with one outpacing the other by just one or a few points. Recent polls show that Harris is ahead of Trump by only six-tenths of a point.
Meanwhile, Democrat polling strategist Nate Silver offered damning news for the Harris campaign. He pointed out that Harris had a 53.5 percent chance of winning in August, while Trump had a 46.1 percent.
#Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 6, 2024
August 23
🟦 Harris: 53.5%
🟥 Trump: 46.1%
September 6
🟥 Trump: 61.5%
🟦 Harris: 38.3%
——
Swing States: chance of winning
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump 62-38%
Michigan - 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Arizona - 🔴… pic.twitter.com/2JqxjoAr5O
However, fast-forward just a few weeks, and the forecast is a lot greener in Trump’s neck of the woods. Silver’s polling found that, as of Sept. 6, the 45th president has a 61.5 percent chance of winning, while Harris has only a 38.3 percent.
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Trump’s dominance in swing states is becoming unmatched by the former president—even in states President Joe Biden won in 2020. In Pennsylvania, Trump holds a 62 percent lead over Harris’ 38 percent, and in Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump has a 52 percent chance of winning, compared to the vice president’s 48 percent chance.
Although not a swing state, Trump is also ahead in Texas. According to a recent University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll, the former president leads Harris 49 to 44 percent in the state.
All eyes will be on Harris as she takes the stage in her first presidential debate against Trump next week. If we learned anything from the election cycle, one bad debate can end a presidential campaign. And if there’s one thing to know about Kamala Harris, she can’t answer a question without a teleprompter or script for her life.
As millions of Americans tune in, this debate could easily secure Trump the presidency and make Democrats wish they would have kept Biden in the race.
