The numbers for President Joe Biden aren't good. He could very well stay in this race, costing Democrats not just the White House, but possibly control of the Senate and denying them the chance to gain control of the House. We keep hearing about new lows for Biden, as well as new highs for former and potentially future President Donald Trump, especially regarding approval ratings and chances of winning. Biden isn't getting any younger, and the mainstream media is finally doing their jobs while Democrats panic. Poll results suggest they certainly have reason to.
On Thursday, the Pew Research Center released the results of its July poll, which began not long after the disastrous debate performance from Biden more than two weeks ago.
Trump leads Biden, just as he's done in countless other polls. In a head-to-head, he leads Biden by 50-47 percent. With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the ballot, Trump leads 44-40-15 percent.
🇺🇲 NATIONAL POLL: @pewresearch
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 11, 2024
🟥 Trump: 50% (+3)
🟦 Biden: 47%
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🟥 Trump: 44% (+4)
🟦 Biden: 40%
🟨 RFK Jr: 15%
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Crosstabs (with RFK Jr)
• Biden 2020 voters: Biden 79-5%
• Trump 2020 voters: Trump 88-2%
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• White: Trump 50-36%
• Black: Biden 64-13%
• Hispanic: Tie… pic.twitter.com/T6tD3gfRuM
We're yet again seeing that Trump holds onto more support from his 2020 voters than Biden does, 88-79 percent. Biden also looks to be losing more support to Kennedy (14 percent) than Trump (8 percent).
The poll's headline highlights how "Amid Doubts About Biden’s Mental Sharpness, Trump Leads Presidential Race," which is certainly an accurate way of characterizing the poll. The subheadline mentions, "Roughly 6 in 10 voters describe both Biden and Trump as ‘embarrassing.'" In the areas that are bad for Trump, they're also bad for Biden, as 63 percent of voters say so about both.
Regarding other terms to describe the candidates, just 24 percent say that Biden is "mentally sharp," while 58 percent say the same about Trump. The poll later reveals that this number actually goes up for Trump from 2021. For Biden, those numbers briefly went up but then dropped by over 20 points.
Biden has more of an edge in that 48 percent say he's "honest" while just 36 percent say so about Trump, but the president has a much smaller edge when it comes to what voters say when they're asked whether the candidate "cares about the needs of ordinary people." Just under half, 49 percent, say so about Biden, while 44 percent say so about Trump.
Those numbers have fluctuated for Biden, though they're down from when he was first in office. They've gone up for Trump. There goes that narrative that the Biden camp has tried to rely on.
In our new survey, only 24% of voters say the phrase “mentally sharp” describes Biden; 58% say the same of Trump.
— Pew Research Center (@pewresearch) July 11, 2024
Meanwhile, about twice as many voters describe Trump as mean-spirited (64%) than say that about Biden (31%). https://t.co/gXwCjkgaAO pic.twitter.com/c49nIN34ky
The poll's write-up specifically highlights this part (emphasis original):
Voters’ doubts about Biden’s mental sharpness, while not new, have become the subject of intense focus following the debate.
Only about a quarter of voters (24%) say the phrase “mentally sharp” describes Biden very or fairly well; more than twice as many (58%) describe Trump as mentally sharp.
The share of voters describing Biden as mentally sharp has declined 6 points since January and is considerably lower than it was in 2020.
We've seen plenty of polls showing Trump leading Biden on key issues, and by wide margins. That looks to be the case here as well, and this poll also mentions findings on the issues in general. "Overall, 43% of voters say they agree with Donald Trump on many or all issues, while somewhat fewer (37%) say they agree with Biden on many or all issues," the write-up mentions.
Trump enjoys more support than Biden does among his supporters on the issues:
Nearly nine-in-ten Trump supporters (88%) say they agree with him on many or all issues, including 41% who say they agree with him on all or nearly all issues.
Eight-in-ten Biden supporters say they agree with him on many or all issues, though just 25% say they agree with him on all or nearly all issues.
While relatively small shares of either candidate’s supporters say they agree with their candidate on only a few or no issues, Biden’s supporters are slightly more likely to say this than Trump’s (19% vs. 12%, respectively).
Not only does Trump enjoy more support in that his supporters agree with him on all/nearly all or many of the issues (88 percent), but 41 percent say they agree with him on all or nearly all. Of the 81 percent of Biden supporters who agree with him on all/nearly all or many of the issues, just 25 percent say it's all or nearly all the issues and 56 percent say it's just many of the issues. That number was at 46 percent for Trump.
Further, 18 percent of Biden's supporters say they agree with him on only a few issues, while that number is 11 percent when it comes to Trump's supporters agreeing with him on just a few issues.
Trump has a +17 lead on immigration over Biden (52-35 percent), a +13 lead on economic policy (54-41 percent), and a +10 lead on foreign policy (49-39 percent). The candidates are even at 47 percent each when it comes to selecting nominees to the U.S. Supreme Court, while Biden has a small lead of +4 on abortion (48-44 percent), and when it comes to "work well with elected officials in the other party," a lead of +8 (40-32 percent).
With how much Biden, his reelection campaign, and the Democratic Party have obsessed over abortion, including when it comes to lying and fearmongering about Trump and the Republican Party, that's not great that their lead is only +4.
The write-up speaks to another issue for Biden here:
Voters’ confidence in Trump on the economy, foreign policy and Supreme Court appointments is nearly identical to voters’ assessments in the 2020 election.
By comparison, confidence in Biden in each of these domains is lower than it was in the 2020 election.
Half of voters expressed confidence in Biden’s ability to make good foreign policy decisions in June 2020, as did about half (48%) in his ability to make good decisions about economic policy.
Today, about four-in-ten express confidence in Biden in each of these areas.
The numbers get even worse from there, though. This is where we get a "new low" for Biden, just 32 percent approve of the job he's doing as president, while 66 percent disapprove, bringing us to that "new low" of a net -34 percent.
Even among his fellow Democrats and those who lean Democratic, just 61 percent approve of the job Biden is doing.
Just 29 percent of white voters approve of the job Biden is doing, and only 32 percent of Hispanics and 36 percent of Asian voters do. While a majority of black voters approve of the job Biden is doing, it's barely a majority at 51 percent. Further, 45 percent still disapprove of the job he's doing.
This isn't the only question where there's bad news for Biden among Hispanics. Trump and Biden are tied with this demographic, at 36 percent each. Twenty-four percent support Kennedy.
📊 Pew Research: Biden Job Approval
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 11, 2024
Approve: 32%
Disapprove: 66%
Net: -34% (new low)
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• White: 29-70
• Black: 51-45
• Hispanic: 32-66
• Asian: 36-61
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• Postgrad: 48-51
• College grad: 35-64
• No college: 28-70
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• Men: 32-66
• Women: 32-65
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• Ages 18-29:… pic.twitter.com/qPGH4ttn60
We've seen plenty of polls where Biden's fellow Democrats are concerned about him remaining the nominee. It's not merely voters, but also an increasing number of congressional Democrats. There are also Democrats in office who aren't brave enough to give a straight answer.
Pew asks whether voters would replace the candidates. A majority of all voters, 53 percent, would "replace both," while an even greater majority of Biden supporters, 71 percent, say so. A plurality of Trump supporters, 39 percent, say to keep both.
As the write-up noted (emphasis original):
Since April, there has been a modest uptick in the share of voters who say that if given the chance, they would replace both Biden and Trump on the ballot. Currently, 53% favor replacing Biden and Trump with different candidates, up from 49% in April.
This shift has come entirely among Biden supporters. In fact, Trump supporters are less likely to favor replacing both candidates than they were in April.
Currently, 71% of Biden supporters say that if they had the ability to decide the major party candidates for the 2024 election, they would replace both Biden and Trump. Roughly a quarter (23%) say they would keep Biden and replace Trump, while smaller shares would keep Trump and replace Biden (2%) or keep both candidates (3%).
In April, a smaller majority of Biden supporters (62%) favored replacing both Biden and Trump.
Among Trump supporters, by contrast, the share who would replace both candidates has declined, from 35% to 26%. The share who wants to keep both candidates on the ballot has risen from 27% to 39%.
The poll was conducted July 1-7, with 9,424 U.S. adults, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.3 percentage points. Among the respondents were 7,729 registered voters.
The Pew Research poll isn't an outlier, including and especially when it comes to the troubling signs among key demographics. Earlier in the week, the Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman highlighted findings from their poll showing how Biden is doing so poorly, that it doesn't look like he can win.
"Bottom line: Biden's current numbers w/ Black (71%-21%), Hispanic (48%-41%) and young (46%-41%) voters are incompatible w/ any plausible Dem win scenario," he posted.
The best feature of our polling average: crosstab averages & trend lines for key demographic groups. Bottom line: Biden's current numbers w/ Black (71%-21%), Hispanic (48%-41%) and young (46%-41%) voters are incompatible w/ any plausible Dem win scenario. https://t.co/fMWvW8NxrA pic.twitter.com/0iOQxeZNbW
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) July 10, 2024
