On Saturday, The Wall Street Journal released a poll that looks good for former and potentially future President Donald Trump as he's been touting not only the chances of him winning the Republican nomination, but the general election as well.
Wall Street Journal: "The new survey finds that what was once a two-man race for the nomination has collapsed into a lopsided contest in which Trump, for now, has no formidable challenger." https://t.co/VGSy6PyKoY
— MAGA War Room (@MAGAIncWarRoom) September 2, 2023
According to the poll conducted late last month, just after the first RNC debate which Trump skipped, 59 percent of Republican primary voters say that Trump is their first choice. Seven percent chose him as their second choice. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) comes in a distant second, with 13 percent of such respondents choosing them as their first choice. He does enjoy the most support of any candidate among those primary voters choosing him as their second choice, with 35 percent saying so. No other candidate enjoys support in the double digits when it comes to whom primary voters would pick as their first choice.
The frontrunner has actually expanded his lead, and it appears that the numerous indictments against him are only helping him in the polls. As a write-up from the WSJ begins:
Donald Trump has expanded his dominating lead for the Republican presidential nomination, a new Wall Street Journal poll shows, as GOP primary voters overwhelmingly see his four criminal prosecutions as lacking merit and about half say the indictments fuel their support for him.
The new survey finds that what was once a two-man race for the nomination has collapsed into a lopsided contest in which Trump, for now, has no formidable challenger. The former president is the top choice of 59% of GOP primary voters, up 11 percentage points since April, when the Journal tested a slightly different field of potential and declared candidates.
One takeaway highlighted in the write-up is bad news for DeSantis, as his "position has collapsed since April," when he was included as part of "a slightly different field of candidates tested by the Journal." He was not yet a declared candidate, but still had 24 percent support compared to his current 13 percent.
"DeSantis collapsed," Democratic pollster Michael Bocian is quoted as saying. "The one candidate who back in April really seemed to be a potential contender, seemed to have a narrative to tell, has totally collapsed, and those votes went to Trump."
Another takeaway also shows bad news for primary candidates who are more critical of Trump, including former Govs. Chris Christie (R-NJ) and Asa Hutchinson (R-AR), who enjoy just 3 percent and 1 percent support, respectively.
"Republicans nationally are rejecting the candidates who most sharply criticize Trump: Former Govs. Chris Christie of New Jersey and Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas drew 3% and 1% support, respectively. Christie is the most unpopular GOP candidate tested, with 73% holding an unfavorable view of him," the poll's write-up noted.
Trump currently enjoys 53.6 percent support in the Republican primary, and a spread of +39.3, according to RealClearPolitics (RCP), which factors in the latest WSJ poll.
In the general election, Trump and President Joe Biden are statistically tied, at 40-39 percent support. Potential Green Party and Libertarian candidates had a combined 3 percent support. Seventeen percent, which the poll's write-up called a "significant share," were undecided. Trump and Biden are tied with 46 percent support each among registered voters when other candidates were excluded. Eight percent were undecided.
With that poll's 46 percent figure factored into RCP's roundup of polling for the hypothetical rematch between Trump and Biden, Biden only leads by a spread of +0.7, with 44.7 percent support to Trump's 44 percent support.
Other polls factored in actually show Trump with a lead, including those from The Economist/YouGov, Emerson, and The New York Post.
The WSJ poll's write-up is particularly interested in how the indictments have helped Trump, especially in the primary:
The poll highlights one of the remarkable features of the 2024 primary race: Criminal prosecutions that in past eras might have sunk a candidate have only strengthened the leading contender. Two of Trump’s indictments involve his efforts to remain in power after his 2020 loss, which included repeated false claims of widespread election irregularities.
Asked about the indictments of Trump, more than 60% of Republican primary voters said each was politically motivated and without merit. Some 78% said Trump’s actions after the 2020 election were legitimate efforts to ensure an accurate vote, while 16% said Trump had illegally tried to block Congress from certifying an election he had lost. About half, or 48%, said the indictments made them more likely to vote for Trump in 2024, while 16% said they made them less likely to support him for a second term.
The poll was conducted August 24-30, with 1,500 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. Among them were 600 Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
This is not the only poll to have shown Republicans, and Americans of all political parties, are concerned with the political nature of charges brought against Trump. A poll released last month from CBS News found such concern as well.
When asked if they were more concerned that "Trump tried to overturn a presidential election" or that the charges "are politically motivated," each response had 38 percent support among Americans. A plurality of Independents, at 41 percent, and a majority of Republicans, at 71 percent said the latter concerned them more.
For Reps, there is overwhelming concern about the perceived politics, just as we saw when we asked about the charges & politics after the classified documents indictment. pic.twitter.com/cSBZ4cxTuy
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) August 6, 2023
The WSJ poll gained considerable attention over the weekend, including on many of the Sunday shows, such as ABC News' "This Week," NBC News' "Meet the Press," and CNN's "State of the Union."
Trump shared the results of the poll in a TruthSocial post from Sunday night and also reposted by the MAGA War Room Twitter account.
2024 National GE:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 3, 2023
Donald Trump 46%
Joe Biden 46%
.
Donald Trump 40% (+1)
Joe Biden 39%
Cornel West (G) 2%
Lars Mapstead (L) 1%
.@WSJ, 1,500 RV, 8/24-30https://t.co/H4J0LQYPjP
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