No, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has not made any campaign official, at least not yet. He continues to play coy when it comes to whether he'll run for reelection as a moderate Democrat in a bright red state, or perhaps even run for president. He's almost 76-years-old and has had a lengthy career in West Virginia politics both at the state and federal level. Perhaps he'll retire then. Regardless, if he does anything other than run for reelection, his fellow Democrats are worried.
Manchin is up for reelection in 2024, and if he decides to run again, this Senate race will be one of the top ones to watch, if not the race to watch. It comes down to West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio for that top spot. All three are increasingly red states with a Democratic incumbent once more up for reelection.
It's likely that Democrats only have a chance of keeping their Senate seat in West Virginia if Manchin runs again, given the benefit of incumbency advantage. The state voted for President Donald Trump in 2016 by 42.1 percentage points and in 2020 by 38.9 percentage points. Meanwhile, Manchin managed to hold on in 2018, something of a blue wave, winning reelection by just 3.3 percentage points.
West Virginia is also the state where President Joe Biden has had his lowest approval ratings anywhere in the country, as the Civiqs poll has been tracking.
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The Republican primary for the Senate seat has already so far attracted Rep. Alex Mooney and Jim Justice, the state's popular sitting governor who is term-limited. Manchin, meanwhile, is deeply unpopular, which is perhaps no better illustrated than in a Morning Consult poll from the first quarter of this year.
The shares of registered voters in West Virginia who approve or disapprove of Sen. Joe Manchin’s and Gov. Jim Justice’s job performance:
— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) April 19, 2023
Manchin
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 55%
Justice
Approve: 66%
Disapprove: 31%https://t.co/q8klQ5ilPc pic.twitter.com/7DelxtyM5v
Manchin's Democratic colleagues are encouraging him to run for reelection, as mentioned in a POLITICO report. That includes Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chairman Gary Peters of Michigan. Even Republicans, like Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, are cited as encouraging him to run again, given that they're also considered moderates.
Manchin could very well lose his seat though, to Justice especially, as the polls and Justice's own confidence predict. If Manchin doesn't run, though, Democrats are even more certain going to have to kiss that seat goodbye.
Senior Democratic strategist David Axelrod opined on Manchin's political future earlier this month, as he speculated that Manchin "knows that he can’t win reelection in that state" of West Virginia, and that running for president could be "a graceful exit for him." Manchin fired back, though, with a spokesperson emphasizing to Fox News that Manchin was focused on doing what's best for the people of West Virginia.
"This is a funny comment about polls since the same smart pollsters said Barack Obama’s poll numbers proved he had no chance against Hilary Clinton, Donald Trump could never win the first election, and Republicans would win huge in 2022. Senator Manchin’s focus is on doing the best job for West Virginia and the American people. The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day," the spokesperson said.
Given that Manchin has said he'll announce his plans at "the end of the year" and "I'm in no hurry," there's still a long way to go, and plenty of causes for speculation along the way.
A series of headlines this week shows Manchin's fellow Democrats are worried. Among them included that POLITICO report, with those like Sens. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) wanting Manchin to stay in the Senate as opposed to running for president and helping elect Trump, assuming he'll be the Republican nominee once more.
As the report mentioned:
Joe Manchin loves to keep his political options open — and now, as the West Virginia centrist flirts with a third-party campaign for president, his Democratic colleagues are taking him seriously enough to try to talk him out of it.
Manchin is never one to quash a mystery surrounding his future, whether it’s pursuing his old job as governor or how he’d vote in former President Donald Trump’s first impeachment trial. Yet even as many doubt he’ll go through with a White House bid, Democrats also fear it could hand the GOP both the Senate and the White House if he does.
Manchin’s refusal to silence talk of a White House bid, potentially funded by centrist group No Labels, gives him leverage over party leaders: The more they need him to seek Senate reelection, the more attention he can get for his priorities.
That’s because Manchin is the only candidate with a prayer of keeping his Senate seat blue. And if Republicans win the presidency in 2024, they’d only need one Senate pick-up to take control.
So some fellow Democrats are letting Manchin know he’d be making a mistake.
The fear may actually be real, not merely because Manchin has yet to run out that presidential run, but because a group known as No Labels wants him to run, a group that Manchin has spoken positively of as he's repeatedly raised concerns with what he says are extremes on both the left and the right, while also promoting a kind of middle ground and the idea of coming together.
"I don’t rule out anything," Manchin was quoted as saying by POLITICO, when also taking issue with the idea that his presidential run would automatically help Trump. "There’s a tremendous concern about our country and the direction the country is going in. That’s all. We’re talking about whether it’s going to hurt anybody if there’s some kind of interest in trying to save the centrist, moderate middle," he also said.
The Washington Examiner also addressed Manchin's potential presidential run, providing more context about No Labels, which would actually drop its efforts if Trump did not once more become the Republican nominee. The group also says it's "too premature" to say if Manchin is their top pick. The group told the Washington Examiner earlier this month that they won't make a decision until their nominating convention next year.
Manchin was part of the group's launch in 2010, as is Collins who is an honorary co-chair like he is. Both are mentioned in a Fox News piece, which wrote not one but two pieces about Manchin's potential presidential run with focuses on No Labels as well as the fears of fellow Democrats. It was also a segment on "The Five" on Thursday, which is part of Fox News programming.
Manchin has played coy not just with whether or not he'll run for reelection or for president, but with supporting Biden's nominees. He's likely to vote against Julie Su, Biden's nominee for Secretary of Labor, and has opposed other nominees as well. Manchin, as highlighted last month, has also been at odds with his party on issues such as abortion and supporting Build Back Better. Though he does not take issue with the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), it may be too little too late, since his vote was responsible for getting it passed. Most recently, E&E News covered "Inside Manchin’s war with Biden on electric vehicles."
If Manchin decides to do something that doesn't help the Democratic Party, who can really blame him?
