As I teased in a piece earlier today about how badly Democrat Terry McAuliffe is flailing in his quest to once more be the governor of Virginia, there has most certainly been a shift in who has an edge in the polls when it comes to McAuliffe and his Republican opponent, Glenn Youngkin. Guy has written about two polls showing Youngkin with a lead, a Fox News poll and a co/efficient poll. Both had McAuliffe up in previous months. But, there are even more polls.
On Friday, a Big Data Poll from Richard Baris found Youngkin with a lead of 49.5 percent to McAuliffe's 46.5 percent. Broken down by demographics, Youngkin is ahead with men (56.5 percent), those 45-64 years old (52.9 percent) and those 65 and older (52.5 percent). He's ahead with white likely voters by nearly 20 points (58.1 percent to McAuliffe's 38.9 percent) and by Hispanic ones as well (53.1 percent). He's also ahead with Independents by double digits (53.6 percent to McAuliffe's 36.2 percent).
NEW: @BigDataPoll (R)/@Peoples_Pundit
— PPUSA (@PollProjectUSA) October 29, 2021
2021 VA Governor GE
(R) Glenn Youngkin 50%
(D) Terry McAuliffe 47%
President Biden Job Approval (VA)
Approve 46%
Disapprove 53%
895 LV
Sample: D38/I25/R37https://t.co/tBUR5BgFtK
BREAKING: NEW POLL HAS YOUNGKIN UP 3% IN VA
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 29, 2021
Top pollster, Rich Baris, has Youngkin up 2.9% in Virginia Governor race
Youngkin: 49.5%
McAuliffe: 46.6% https://t.co/yqab1ZP4Te
Baris, in an episode of "Inside the Numbers with the People's Pundit," emphasized that the 46-64 year old age group is "the swing vote in Virginia," which means McAuliffe would need a bigger turnout among younger people, and Baris predicted he will not get that.
Parents with children over 18 support Youngkin, including 53.3 percent of fathers and 50.2 percent of mothers.
Fathers of children under 18 are particularly in favor of voting for Youngkin, Baris also emphasized when it comes to what he refers to "revenge of the protective fathers." Men with children under 18 support Youngkin by 67.1 percent to 29.9 percent for McAuliffe. Mothers of this age group of children slightly prefer McAuliffe, by 48.1 percent to 43.2 percent for Youngkin.
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Baris pointed out that the Fox News poll similarly showed such high support towards Youngkin from fathers with children under 18.
While McAuliffe is ahead with some expected demographics, such as women (51.8 percent) and those 18-29 years old (44.0 percent) it's not necessarily by the amount he needs to be when it comes to the 77.1 percent he has with Black voters. Youngkin still has 14.4 percent support with Black voters.
We got a sneak peek at a poll that's going to be released today... and yes it also shows Youngkin with a lead.
— The Virginia Project (@ProjectVirginia) October 29, 2021
But the most shocking thing in it is the internals specifically with respect to the black vote. Dems are 10 points (at least) below where they need to be with blacks.
Biden is underwater in Virginia with this poll, as he is in other polls. He has a 45.8 percent approval rating and a 53.1 percent disapproval rating, including 44.5 who "strongly disapprove."
Another poll that shows Youngkin with a lead with likely voters comes from Echloen Insights. Youngkin has support of 49 percent of likely voters who say they will "definitely" or "probably" vote for him, including 46 percent who say they "definitely" will. While McAuliffe has support from 46 percent who say they will "definitely" or "probably" vote for him, just 39 percent say they "definitely" will.
New #VAGOV poll from Echelon: Glenn Youngkin holds a 3 point edge in the likely electorate, and a similar advantage among all voters.
— Echelon Insights (@EchelonInsights) October 29, 2021
GOV:@GlennYoungkin 49@TerryMcAuliffe 46
LG:@WinsomeSears 48@HalaAyala 46
AG:@JasonMiyaresVA 48@MarkHerringVA 47https://t.co/gWMEn1VtQy pic.twitter.com/q88wqHzxwZ
These likely similarly approve of Biden by 46 percent and disapprove by 53 percent, with 45 percent who say they "strongly disapprove."
It's also worth noting that this poll's likely voter respondents are more so Democrats (35 percent) and Biden voters (50 percent) than they are Republicans (32 percent) and Trump voters (44 percent).
The poll also highlighted that parents of children in kindergarten through 12th grade trust Youngkin more with education by 55 percent compared to the 40 percent who trust McAuliffe more.
K-12 parents trust Youngkin to handle education better than McAuliffe by 15 points. pic.twitter.com/zCzH1qYxXM
— Echelon Insights (@EchelonInsights) October 29, 2021
