Tipsheet

The Dems' Virginia Redistricting Push Still in Limbo As Election Day Nears

Matt Vespa
Matt Vespa  |  April 18, 2026 6:00 AM

As George Will once said, long before the Trump era, public opinion is like shifting sand; therefore, there are no permanent victories in our system of government. That’s a good thing. It also means that what we say one month could be very different from the next, and that might have been the case for Virginia voters. Democrats want a 10-1 advantage in the latest congressional map. It will be up to the voters to decide next Tuesday. 

In late March, the pro-gerrymander outlook didn’t look good. Voters didn’t like it, including a healthy number of Democrats. Now, things are looking different, or are they? (via WSET):

A new poll indicates that voters in Virginia could approve changes to congressional district maps during the April 21 redistricting referendum.

According to a survey conducted by George Mason University in partnership with The Washington Post, a majority of voters say they plan to vote “yes” on the upcoming referendum. The poll also found that more than 60 percent of registered voters in the Commonwealth said they are certain they will participate in the vote.

When asked how they plan to vote, 53 percent of respondents said they support changing the current congressional map, while 44 percent said they plan to vote “no.”

Political analyst Dr. David Richards said the referendum is drawing unusual levels of attention for a special election, which typically sees lower voter turnout.

Democrats have invested millions in this referendum, even featuring some prominent figures like Barack Obama, who was opposed to this kind of thing—something Republicans have highlighted in their counter ads. It’s confusing voters, apparently, and Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s sharp decline in approval ratings, along with limited grassroots support, has some Democrats still feeling uneasy. The ‘uphill climb’ narrative has been mentioned before in Virginia, which usually leads to blue wipeouts. 

At this point, it’s all about reminding voters what’s at stake, which is why on Thursday, our own Larry O’Connor attended a vote ‘NO’ rally in Loudoun County with former Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

We'll know on April 21, but if the Supreme Court strikes down a key provision in the Voting Rights Act, Democrats could lose the entire South, making this push moot.