Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is trying to turn the Texas Republican Senate primary race into a contest over electability as he seeks to defend his seat from challengers like Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (TX-38).
The senator told CNN that if GOP voters nominate Paxton, it could lead to an “election day massacre” for the party across the country. He stated that if Paxton wins the primary, “we risk losing the Senate seat, losing the majority in the House of Representatives, and it will take a toll on everybody in the ballot.”
Cornyn argued that Paxton’s legal and ethical baggage would force the GOP to funnel as much as $200 million into preserving Texas’ Senate seat.
🚨NEW POLL🚨
— Breanna Morello (@BreannaMorello) February 17, 2026
TX AG Ken Paxton is leading in the polls for the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary race.
Ken Paxton is leading with 36% support, U.S. Senator John Cornyn trails at 27%, while U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt receives 15%.
Meanwhile, 22% of respondents remain… pic.twitter.com/MfRNYN7R4S
Yet, a recent survey from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs shows that Republican voters aren't buying what Cornyn is selling. Researchers found that Paxton is leading the primary field with 38 percent to Cornyn’s 31 percent. Hunt comes in third with 217 percent. However, 12 percent of respondents remained undecided.
Senator John Cornyn protected Christian student groups, defended the Ten Commandments, rejected Sharia-based legal concepts, and stands firmly with Israel.
— Team Cornyn (@TeamCornyn) February 17, 2026
For decades, he has delivered for faith and family in Texas. Support John Cornyn for U.S. Senate. pic.twitter.com/OHm06BfxgL
Making matters even more complicated for the incumbent, the survey showed that Paxton holds a 51-40 edge over Cornyn if the race goes to a runoff election.
Experts suggest these findings might have establishment Republican leadership spooked. The Hobby School’s senior executive director Renée Cross pointed out that “many Texas primary voters are ready for change and are backing candidates who will shake things up.”
It's the first day of early voting in Texas.
— Attorney General Ken Paxton (@KenPaxtonTX) February 17, 2026
The polls are open, and you have the opportunity to make your voice heard and fire John Cornyn!
Let's do this, Texas.
However, not everyone is as enthused about Paxton. A Republican strategist told Politico that the attorney general is “one scandal away from imploding on the general election ballot.”
Former National Republican Senate Committee strategist Jesse Hunt said that a GOP civil war in Texas “sucks money and attention away from the actual front lines” of the party’s effort to retain control of the upper chamber.
The Texas GOP primary is set for March 3. However, if none of the candidates win more than 50 percent of the vote, it will continue into a runoff election that would take place on May 26.