Tipsheet

Republicans Are Confident They'll Keep Control of the House. Here's Why.

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  November 07, 2024 1:45 PM

This article has been updated to include details about the race in Maine's 2nd Congressional District.

While control of the House of Representatives following the 2024 elections has yet to be determined, Republicans are feeling confident that they will hold onto this chamber as well, giving them control of the White House, the Senate, and the House, just as was the case in 2016. On Tuesday night, Republicans seized control of the Senate, thanks to Sen-Elect Bernie Moreno's win in Ohio, after he unseated Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. 

During his victory speech in the early hours of Wednesday morning, President-Elect Donald Trump was joined on stage by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), among many others, as he expressed confidence that the party would maintain control of the chamber.

Throughout Wednesday and Thursday, Republican House leaders have expressed confidence about their chances, including Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC), this cycle's chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

It's not just Republican lawmakers, though, who are feeling so confident. On Thursday afternoon, with Republicans just five seats away from earning the majority, Decision Desk HQ predicts that there is an 85.1 percent chance that they keep control of the chamber. While those numbers have been changing, the edge remains with Republicans. Polymarket gives Republicans a 97 percent chance. 

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And yet despite the odds against them, Democrats have been expressing a shocking amount of confidence as well, as House Minority Speaker Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) made clear on Wednesday. 

Both parties lost and flipped House races, with Republicans flipping some key races. 

Among those flips officially called by Decision Desk HQ, include:

  • Michigan's 7th Congressional District, with Republican Rep.-Elect Tom Barrett beating Democrat Curtis Hertel. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin left her seat to run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, and just narrowly pulled off a win against former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers. 
  • Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, where Republican Rep.-Elect Ryan Mackenzie defeated Democratic Rep. Susan Wild
  • Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District where Republican Rep.-Elect Robert Bresnahan defeated Democratic Rep. Matthew Cartwright

Although the races have yet to be called in these districts, Republicans are leading in these races as well, with most of them taking place in California:

  • Republican Rep. David Schweikert of Arizona's 1st Congressional District against Democrat Amish Shah
  • Republican Nick Begich in his bid to unseat to Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola for Alaska's At-Large, though the time the race takes to be called and its outcome may be affected by rank choice voting. 
  • Republican Rep. John Duarte leads Democrat Adam Gray for California's 13th Congressional District
  • Republican Rep. David Valadao leads Democrat Rudy Salas, currently by double digits, in a rematch for California's 22nd Congressional District
  • Republican Rep. Mike Garcia leads Democrat George Whitesides in California's 27th Congressional District
  • Republican Rep. Ken Calvert leads Democrat Will Rollins in California's 41st Congressional District
  • Republican Rep. Michelle Steel leads Democrat Derek Tran in California's 45th Congressional District
  • Republican Scott Baugh leads Democrat Dave Min in California's 47th Congressional District, an open seat vacated by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who unsuccessfully ran for the U.S. Senate

Several other Republican incumbents also held on, including the following who were expected to be in tight races:

  • Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. This comes despite Vice President Kamala Harris winning the district's 1 electoral vote
  • Rep. Zach Nunn of Iowa's 3rd Congressional District
  • Rep. Scott Perry in Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District
  • Rep. Jen Kiggans of Virginia's 2nd Congressional District
  • Rep. John James of Michigan's 10th Congressional District
  • Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa's 1st Congressional District. She had a particularly memorable time mocking pollster Ann Selzer's claims that she would lose by 16 percent. Selzer also claimed that Vice President Kamala Harris was up +3 in the state, when Trump won by over +13.

Although Decision Desk HQ called the race out of Maine's 2nd Congressional District on Wednesday afternoon in favor of Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, Republican Austin Theriault, with a statement highlighting how "historically" close it is. 

"Given that this is the closest race in modern Maine history, we must ensure a full, accurate count," Theriault campaign manager Shawn Roderick said in a statement. "Despite being significantly outspent, this race is still extremely close. We must work together to ensure the Mainers' voices are heard and the final result reflects the will of the people."

During the 2022 midterm election, when Republicans performed much worse than expected, it took several more days for such a call to be made, with California House races once again delaying the call but also bringing wins for Republican members. 

Republicans won all three chambers in 2016 as well, though unlike 2016, Trump also won the popular vote, which a Republican has not achieved since 2004.