Tipsheet

It Looks Like Kamala Harris Is Moving Her Ads From Key Swing States to Be Reallocated Elsewhere

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  October 29, 2024 3:45 PM

While we've been saying that this election will likely come down to seven key battleground states, and it still could, former and potentially future President Donald Trump is enjoying momentum so strong he may not just win in most or in all of those states, but in other states not traditionally considered to be battleground states. Now, in the final days before the election, there looks to be more states seriously in play, and it looks like Vice President Kamala Harris knows it too, which may explain why she's pulling her ads from North Carolina markets.

There's been plenty of chatter on Tuesday about how Harris is pulling about $2 million in ads from these markets, despite how the state is considered something of a swing state. 

RealClearPolling has Trump leading in the swing states overall by +0.9, as he has been for some time. In North Carolina, he's up by +0.9, making it one of his better states performance-wise. Nate Silver's forecast for Tuesday has Trump up by +1.2 there against Harris, with the polls trending R+0.2 from the last week and R+1.1 from the last month. 

There are some polls showing Harris and Trump tied in the state, while the latest poll, from the Trafalgar Group, has Trump leading Harris by 49.4 percent to 46.2 percent among likely voters, while 3.3 percent are undecided. This is just outside the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Over at our sister site of RedState, Sister Toldjah cited NBC News pointing out how the Harris campaign worried that of all the swing states, North Carolina was "a little bit slipping away." She also mentioned a write-up from Thomas Mills, a Democratic strategist from North Carolina.

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As Mills explained on Monday, referring to the weekend that just passed:

...Overall, Republicans have an edge over Democrats by little more than 35,000 voters among in-person early voters.

The unaffiliated voters have been voting at much higher rates this year than in the past. While most are regular voters, about 14% are first time voters. Unsurprisingly, those voters are younger. More than two-thirds of the new voters are under 45 years old, which should be good for Democrats. Overall, though, unaffiliated voters are older with almost half over 55 years old, meaning they probably lean pretty heavily Republican.

...

North Carolina Democrats are still missing a lot of Black voters. They have about a 54,000 African American voter deficit compared to the 2020 in-person early voters, a gap that has held steady since late last week after shrinking the first few days of the week. That’s not an insurmountable amount of voters but Democrats will need to make it up over the final six days of early voting or on Election Day.

...

Democrats and Republicans both have a little under 1 million likely voters left to vote. Getting them to the polls will be essential. Finding new voters will probably determine who wins the election.

Harris not performing well with black voters is something we have heard throughout this campaign, hence panic from the Democrats and the need for former President Barack Obama to try to shame black men into voting for the Democratic nominee. 

So, is Harris giving up there? It's certainly possible, and plenty of users over X have gotten that idea. 

Chris LaCivita, a Republican strategist who is with the Trump campaign, posted about Harris maybe focusing on Virginia. 

The Trump campaign is spending some time in Virginia as well, with the Republican nominee to hold a rally in Salem over the upcoming weekend. One benefit in Virginia is there's a popular Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin who can campaign for Republican candidates, just as he did at a rally in Chesterfield over the weekend. Trump called in, reminding that "if we win Virginia, it's over," and he's likely right. The commonwealth, which hasn't voted for the Republican nominee for president since 2004, also has a sizable amount of electoral votes, 13 of them. 

While Silver's forecast has Harris up by +6.4 against Trump in Virginia, the polls have been trending Republican, by +1.2 over the last week and by +0.9 over the last month. 

The Harris campaign likely is right to be concerned about North Carolina, which again, is one of Trump's best swing states. He also won there in 2016 and 2020. Even more shocking is the chatter that her campaign looks to be doing so in Wisconsin as well. 

Among those also chiming in about the ads is The Daily Signal's Tony Kinnett, who also hosts "The Tony Kinnett Cast." His insight is especially crucial when it comes to Wisconsin. 

"In late Oct., where Harris-Walz ads owned ~2/5 in weekdaily inventory during drivetime & primetime, they went down to ~1/5," he said about ad inventory documents he's seen. 

This always was going to be one of the potentially trickier swing states, given how other than Trump's win in 2016, it's gone for the Democratic nominee every year since 1984. RCP still has Trump leading by +0.5, while Silver has Harris up by +0.4 there, though the state has trended Republican as well, by +0.3 over the last week and by +1.5 over the past month. 

Beyond the polls, though, the momentum from the Trump campaign is undeniable, as is the panic from the Harris campaign. As Kinnett himself has predicted, we could very well end up finding out the results by the very next afternoon after Election Day, with Wisconsin a win for Trump and Virginia coming close to it.