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These Poll Findings on Latinos Could Hardly Come at a Worse Time for Kamala Harris

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  October 22, 2024 6:30 PM

With two weeks to go before Election Day, the chances are looking pretty good for Donald Trump to once again be elected as president. That doesn't mean he should become cocky and overconfident, and it doesn't appear that he is. In addition to how Trump is not taking this race for granted, the numbers just aren't where they need to be for Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. This has been the case for weeks now, and as her campaign runs out of time, it looks like it's just not getting any easier for her.

While it does not appear that Trump or a Republican nominee for president will outright win the black vote any time sooner, he is doing better than other nominees have in decades. It's why former President Barack Obama was sent out to bully black men into voting for Harris during a campaign stop in Pennsylvania earlier this month.

When it comes to Latino voters, however, there are polls showing Trump outright beating Harris with such a demographic. 

You wouldn't know that from the USA Today headline, though, from Tuesday morning: "Exclusive poll: Harris and Trump tied amid battle for Latino and Black voters."

Among likely voters, Harris has 45 percent support to Trump's 44 percent in a full field, showing a close and essentially tied race, especially in comparison to the USA Today/Suffolk poll from August. 

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It's not until the seventh paragraph that the write-up mentions which candidate Latino voters support, despite them being referenced in the headline:

In the seven weeks between the two polls, Harris lost ground among Latino voters, who now support Trump 49% to 38%, and among Black voters. They favor Harris 72% to 17%, a 55-point advantage that is well below where Democrats traditionally fare.

The margins of error for the small subsamples of Latinos and Black voters are plus or 9 points − a potential shift of up to 18 points one way or the other − and other recent polls show Harris in a stronger position, including a lead among Hispanics.

In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden's victory relied on overwhelming support from both groups. A Pew Research Center analysis concluded that he was backed by 92% of Black voters and 59% of Latino voters.

But Trump has made a concerted bid for the votes of Hispanic and Black voters, especially men, focusing on the economy and crime. His success at eroding the Democrats' typical advantage has raised alarm in Harris' camp and a rebuke on the stump from former President Barack Obama of Black men, who he said might be reluctant to vote for a woman.

Harris hasn't merely "lost ground among Latino voters," as the poll write-up mentioned, but Trump is actually leading by +11, by 49-38 percent. That's outside the plus or minus 9 percentage points among the demographic. For however much the write-up tries to downplay such a lead, that doesn't mean that Harris is where she needs to be. Far from it. Even the poll that's referenced to show examples where Harris is doing better, from The New York Times/Siena College, where she leads Trump by 56-37 percent among the demographic, shows her numbers are down from 2020.

The Biden-Harris ticket won such voters in 2020 with 59 percent support, per Pew Research, while Trump earned 38 percent support. 

Further, the 72-17 percent lead that Harris has with black voters isn't where she needs to be. Pew Research shows that the Biden-Harris ticket won such voters with 92 percent support, while Trump only got 8 percent. For his 2016 win, he earned 28 percent support from Latinos, and 6 percent support among black voters. 

The New York Times/Siena College poll referenced in the write-up isn't the only recent one to look at Latino voters. As we covered at the start of this month, last month's NBC News/Telemundo poll showed Harris with a much more narrow lead among the demographic, 54-40 percent. Again, that 54 percent is not what Biden won win with in 2020, with Harris on the ticket. 

Another theme was that Republicans made ground on other questions while Democrats slipped.

This has also looked to be a close and competitive election, and one where Harris can't afford to be losing key demographics. Trump, meanwhile, is the one with the momentum with just two weeks to go. 

There were other negative findings for Harris from the poll, with such gaps on pertinent questions suggesting the polls could be totally off, and/or time is running out for Harris and it's not likely she'll recuperate.

While the USA Today write-up looked to be toning down support for Trump, Scott Pinsker at our sister site of PJ Media discussed his predictions on voters being blamed for a potential Harris defeat. Last week, The New Republican put out a headline claiming with the narrative of how "Trump Appeals to Latino Voters by Doubling Down on Racist Lies." 

Sure enough, the USA Today was also all too happy to engage in gaslighting about how voters feel about economic conditions today, especially compared to four years ago [Emphasis added]:

By double digits, voters said Harris hadn't done enough to explain the specific policies she would pursue in office, 57% to 37%. Those who want to hear more include nearly 1 in 4, or 23%, of her supporters.

In contrast, those surveyed split evenly, 49% yes to 48% no, on whether Trump had done enough to explain his policies. Just 15% of his supporters want to hear more about what he would do.

...

There is more angst now than there was four years ago, even as the COVID-19 pandemic was raging. Then, voters who were asked Ronald Reagan's classic political question − "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" − said 48% to 33% that they were.

That outlook seems sunny compared with today, despite encouraging economic news on jobs and growth. By 44% to 39%, those surveyed in the new poll say they are worse off than they were four years ago.

When it comes to the economy, the poll also found that by 53-43 percent, voters believe Trump will do a better job of handling the economy, which is consistent with virtually all other polls out there. Polls have also shown the economy to be a top issue. 

Further, by 49-46 percent, voters believe that Trump will be better at "providing strong leadership."

The poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 14-18 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The poll was also released as Harris and Trump have been focusing on Latino outreach. While Trump participated in an outreach event in Doral, Florida, Harris was off from campaigning for the day. She has "pretaped" interviews later this week. 

Harris' way to appeal to Latino voters, as Katie covered earlier on Tuesday, has amounted to "pandering," just as she also did with black men before being forced to quickly backdrack. As is usually the case with Harris, who has been in office as the sitting vice president for over three and a half years now, there's also blame for Trump to be thrown in there.

With the USA Today/Suffolk poll included, RealClearPolling shows Harris leading by just +0.9 at the national level, while 538 has her doing a bit better, at +1.7 over Trump. 

Even still, this isn't where the Democratic nominee wants to be, especially compared to previous elections.