Tipsheet

Another Vulnerable Democratic Incumbent Hit by Forecast Change From Cook Political Report

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  October 21, 2024 3:45 PM

With just over two weeks to go, momentum looks to be increasingly on the Republican Party's side. This isn't merely to do with former and potentially future President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, but also with downballot races for the Senate. On Monday, Cook Political Report switched their rating of "Lean Democrat" in the U.S. Senate race out of Pennsylvania, where Sen. Bob Casey Jr. is facing a challenge from Republican Dave McCormick, to "Toss-Up."

Cook Political Report notes that Casey has "a slight lead," with RealClearPolling having him ahead by just +1.9. The write-up also referred to internal polling, which isn't good news for the vulnerable Democratic incumbent, as "both Republican and Democratic internal polls show this is now a margin-of-error race, with Casey holding a slim, statistically insignificant lead of between one and two points."

Last Friday, an ad was making the rounds in which Casey tried to tie himself to Trump and distance himself from the Biden-Harris administration. It looks like it might actually be backfiring. 

"As further evidence of how the tight presidential contest is impacting the Senate race, Republicans point out that Casey’s latest ad touts he 'sid[ed] with Trump to end NAFTA,' suggesting that Casey’s hold on his blue-collar base may be slipping," Cook Political Report also mentioned.

McCormick meanwhile has the support of Elon Musk, who is campaigning for Trump and other Republicans in the key swing state.

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Accounts for Casey's campaign have already sent out multiple fundraising posts over the race forecast change, as well as sending out panicked text messages.

McCormick went with the same move, making his fundraising pitch a quoted repost from Cook Political Report.

Bloomberg Radio addressed the race forecast change on Monday as well, with such a move being considered as "really important and remarkable" as well as "a big deal."

As Bloomberg radio also noted, "we know the presidential race is very close in Pennsylvania, within the margin of error, and perhaps the Senate race is moving tighter as well in these final weeks." 

Also speaking of another forecast change, with the U.S. Senate race out of Nebraska moving from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican," there was another remark about how "neither of these were supposed to happen," as this "runs against a narrative that we've been hearing about throughout this whole cycle." 

Focusing on how bad this looks for Casey, the host also raised alarms for Vice President Kamala Harris as well. "If Bob Casey can't win that Senate race, it's going to be a lot more difficult... for Kamala Harris to win the presidency," as he joked that Harris should go to McDonalds, just as Trump did on Sunday.

RCP currently has Trump up by +0.8 in Pennsylvania against Harris. 

Cook Political Report also regards the U.S. Senate race out of Wisconsin, where vulnerable Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin is running against Republican Eric Hovde, as being a "Toss-Up" race.