Tipsheet
Premium

It Sure Looks Like Jon Tester Is Falling Apart in Key Senate Race Out of Montana

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  October 21, 2024 7:15 PM

As we've been covering, it's looking increasingly likely that Republicans will win back control of the Senate in just a couple of weeks. With Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) retiring, the best pickup chances look to be in Montana, where vulnerable Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester is running against Republican Tim Sheehy. Not only have the polls in forecasts been in Sheehy's favor, but Tester doesn't look to be doing himself any favors, either.

Forecasts are unified in considering Sheehy to be favored in this race. Decision Desk HQ/The Hill even regards the race as a "Likely Republican" one, giving Sheehy a 78 percent chance of winning his race. Their polling average has Sheehy up by +7 over Tester. As of Monday evening, Polymarket gives Republicans an 82 percent chance of winning the chamber, which is also about what Sheehy's chances are against Tester, 81-19 percent.

Tester has run a desperate race, and that even includes trying to distance himself from his party's nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris. He wasn't there for the DNC in August, a move that some, but not all, vulnerable incumbents went with. Now, clips are circulating of him trying to distance himself further, and he admits it's because he's running for reelection.

Over the weekend, Tester spoke with Scripps News' "The Race Weekend," during which he was confronted about how he endorsed Harris for vice president in 2020, as well as posted about how she was "a proven fighter," which he acknowledged as "true." The senator was then asked, "why are you not choosing to not endorse her now?" Tester at least gave an honest response noting that it's "'cause I'm up for election."

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), as well as Sheehy, had a field day with such a candid response.

Recommended

Is This Why Gaetz Withdrew His Name From Consideration for Attorney General? Matt Vespa
Biden's HHS Sent Kids to Strip Clubs, Where They Were Pimped Out Katie Pavlich

Such an episode opened the program by describing Tester as one who "may just be the most important and vulnerable Democratic senator in the country," as he's "in the crosshairs of his Republican opponents as they look to flip his seat and flip the Senate as well." 

Tester went on to say that "I want this race to be about Montana, I don't want this race to be about the presidential race," making clear, "they can fight their own presidential battles."

While that might be a smart tactic for Tester, it may also be too little too late. If Harris was doing well in his state and in the presidential race overall--which she is not--one would think he'd be welcoming her with open arms.

Not only did Tester endorse Harris in 2020 as President Joe Biden's running mate, he's served with her in the Senate before, and even encouraged her to run. He also votes with Biden 95 percent of the time.

Decision Desk HQ/The Hill shows that former and potentially future President Donald Trump has over a 99 percent chance of winning the state. 

While Tester skipped out on the DNC, Sheehy had a primetime speaking spot at the RNC in July. 

Tester has other problems going for him, though. The New York Post reported late last week that his campaign accepted a pair of $50 donations from a dead resident in the third quarter, Bozeman resident Barbara McGowan. The receipt is dated September 20, despite how she died on July 17, and the occupation section admits as much. 

As the piece mentions:

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) has accepted donations from a dead supporter, Federal Election Commission filings show.

Tester, who polls show trailing GOP opponent Tim Sheehy in a race Democrats see as key to holding the Senate majority, accepted a pair of $50 donations in the third quarter from Bozeman resident Barbara McGowan — despite both contributions being designated after her death on July 17.

Two receipts on that date and Sept. 20 mark McGowan’s employer and occupation, eerily, as: “Deceased As Of July 17.”

...

The donations from beyond the grave come as Republicans are accusing Democrats of benefiting from fraudulent donations on the online fundraising behemoth ActBlue.

On Tuesday, former Herman Cain chief of staff Mark Block filed a racketeering lawsuit against the platform for allegedly stealing his identity to make 385 donations to left-wing causes, including Harris’ presidential PAC.

This seems to be a pattern for Democrats. In addition to the fraud concerns with ActBlue, the campaign for Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), another vulnerable incumbent, also accepted donations from a deceased woman. 

As mentioned above, Decision Desk HQ/The Hill have Sheehy with an edge of +7 in the polls over Tester. The polls have been trending in Sheehy's favor for months, which the vulnerable Democratic incumbent senator's campaign has tried to downplay, though it's becoming harder to do so.

RealClearPolling also has Sheehy up by +7 over Tester, while 538 has him up by +5.4 over Tester, though that's still something of a comfortable lead given the margins of error in various polls. 

This year is also quite different from Tester's 2018 win, which was a midterm election year. In contrast, Sheehy has Trump's coattails to ride, and he's also considered to be a far superior opponent than Rep. Matt Rosendale was for that race.