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Do Democrats Have a Nevada Problem?

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  October 21, 2024 2:15 PM

Nevada has been an elusive prize for Republicans, especially at the national level, over the last two decades.  President George W. Bush was the last party nominee to carry the silver state, back in 2004.  Since then, GOP tickets have lost there, both narrowly and handily.  Donald Trump came close in 2016, falling short by a little more than two percentage points against Hillary Clinton.  Joe Biden won Nevada by a similar margin four years later.  In 2022, Republican Adam Laxalt held what appeared to be a modest but significant polling lead in the state's US Senate race heading into Election Day.  Then he became a victim of the national Red Wave That Wasn't, losing narrowly.  The Democrats' Nevada machine prevailed, though the GOP gubernatorial candidate hung on and won, marking one of the very few examples of incumbents losing anywhere in the country, for any major office.  All of which is to say, Nevada has been a very tough nut for Republicans to crack -- for years.

Might that change in 2024?  I remain skeptical, given the history rehearsed above, but there are signs pointing to a very real GOP opportunity in this election.  Over the last few days, Nevada's top political analyst and prognosticator tweeted some admonitions for Democrats about party registration trends and their typical 'firewall' from early voting:


"Danger."  Harry Reid's political machine has outlived the former Senator, and it remains formidable.  Donald Trump holds the slimmest of leads in the RealClearPolitics Silver State average, but as Ralston notes, virtual ties typically break for the Democrats out there.  That could very well be the case.  The Laxalt loss in the midterms came despite his campaign enjoying a substantially larger advantage in the RCP average than Trump is experiencing right now.  Superior ground games can conceivably grind out a point or two, which in hyper-tight races could easily prove determinative.  On the other hand, additional trends in Nevada are starting to draw attention from political data obsessives:


Democrats relying on a "turnout surge on Election Day to counter" the early numbers may not be music to the Harris campaign's ears.  Granted, there are still two weeks for these trajectories to move.  Generally speaking, Republicans are known for showing up in force on the day itself.  Maybe that is changing, and the whole dynamic will be flipped on its head, again.  But I doubt Democrats will feel too confident about needing to count on that happening.  Others are mining specific numbers, too:


I'm very wary of over-interpreting or extrapolating too much from the early and mail-in data.  Improvements in some areas could mean cannibalization elsewhere -- and what may look like good news, based on a previous cycle's dynamics, may not really amount to much under new circumstances.  I'd say using 2020 in particular as too much of a balloting baseline may be risky, given how strange that election was, considering that it was carried out in the middle of an extremely disruptive pandemic. Still, are Democrats excited to see this? 

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Some early indicators in a number of places might be pointing to results that align with some of the other major, underlying 'fundamentals' of the race, which favor Trump and Republicans.  Anything can happen, and I'd still consider this contest a pure tossup, with apparent advantages on both sides, but I know whose trajectory I'd rather have in the closing days -- for now, at least: