Tipsheet

Donald Trump Has to Love This News

Matt Vespa
Matt Vespa  |  October 18, 2024 6:50 AM

Republicans should keep the champagne on ice until the election results are official and act like we’re trailing due to the institutional goliaths we’re facing this election cycle—but one thing cannot be denied: we’re in good shape to win the election. It’s not over, but Joe Biden had a seven-point advantage over Trump in 2024. There’s no pandemic. And Kamala Harris is irritating everyone. Even the most ardent Trump-hater cannot deny that the former president is polling better than ever. While it’s a tight race, Trump has reclaimed the advantage in Nate Silver’s Electoral College projection: 

The Electoral College race remains as close to 50/50 as it gets. But with some good polls for Trump entering our database today, like a 2-point lead in a high-quality national poll and a big lead in Georgia (though he trails in North Carolina in the same Quinnipiac poll), if you squint at the probabilities, you’ll see Trump 50.2%, Harris 49.5%. (There’s an 0.3% chance of a 269-269 tie). 

That’s not much different from yesterday’s forecast of Harris 50.3%, Trump 49.4%. But however nominal, it’s Trump’s first lead in our model since Sept. 19. There’s a good chance that the lead will continue to shift back and forth, akin to a 110-109 basketball game late in the fourth quarter. 

Kamala Harris’ stock has only gone down since her media blitz. She lost five points in a month to Trump in NBC News’ latest poll. Her favorability also took a near-10-point dip. She’s massively underwater among core Democratic voter groups. It’s not looking good, and we’re thankful that Harris is an abysmal candidate who could never answer basic questions, like how she’d be different than Joe Biden.

Silver’s explanation of whether Trump has momentum is couched in elliptical language, as he covers all the bases. However, he did not know that the blue wall is where Trump is no longer an underdog. That has to make Democrats nervous: 

That’s not much different from Trump’s 49.4 percent chances yesterday: the difference is that he wins the Electoral College an additional 1 time out of 125. But Trump is past the 50-yard line — and above Harris’s chances, which are 49.5 percent1 — for the first time since Sept. 19. (Harris remains a clear but not overwhelming favorite in the popular vote, but that’s not how American elections are decided.) 

[…] 

I’ve already used the “m-word” twice — momentum — without formally defining it, and the formal definition is important. Does the fact that Trump’s chances have increased from 42 percent to 50 percent imply that they’ll continue to increase? Hold that thought, though, because I think I owe you a rundown of where Trump’s odds have improved. There are some pretty consistent patterns at the state level: 

It’s basically the Blue Wall states. Trump has gone from being almost a 2:1 underdog in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania at his nadir to close to 50/50 now. Outside of the Blue Wall (and Florida) the changes are incremental. But the Blue Wall states have a combined 61 percent chance of being the tipping-point state, so they really take a bite out of Harris’s Electoral College chances. The closest thing to a bright spot for Harris is North Carolina, which has surpassed Wisconsin in tipping-point odds and could give Harris an out if she loses one of the Blue Wall states (but probably not more than one of them). 

Democrats thought Kamala would trounce Trump—she isn’t. With reports of a shambolic operation in Pennsylvania, the Blue Wall is looking vulnerable again. If the polls are off gauging the Trump vote, as in 2016 and 2020, then overperforming by one point leads to a Trump win. Biden was ahead of Trump by seven points four years ago. 

It’s why Joe Biden and Barack Obama seemed so despondent at Ethel Kennedy’s funeral this week. Both men know this isn’t an ideal position. The only question is whether Trump can close the deal and whether there will be any shenanigans when the ballots are counted. It's not over, but Trump is in much better shape heading into Election Day. 

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