Democrats are panicking. You see that with the Biden Department of Justice suing Virginia for purging illegals off the voter rolls, the ramp-up in media appearances, and now the attacks on Jill Stein. A campaign that’s winning an election doesn’t do this, suggesting that what former MSNBC analyst Mark Halperin reported earlier this week might be accurate—which is that private polling has been brutal for Kamala Harris. It’s so bad that she’s reportedly at risk of losing six swing states.
"I just saw some new private polling that's very robust. Private polling," says @MarkHalperin. Kamala Harris "is in a lot of trouble … In the conversations I'm having with Trump people and Democrats with data, they are extremely bullish on Trump's chances in the last 48 hours.… pic.twitter.com/KF3tSM2sLo
— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) October 9, 2024
We knew this wouldn’t sit well with Democrats, but Halperin was the one who got the scoop on Joe Biden dropping out in July, which was initially dismissed. Answering his critics, Halperin says he’s not with any campaign, doesn’t spin for the Trump team, and will adjust his reporting as all journalists do. The ambiguity over Biden not endorsing Kamala last summer changed within hours of his scoop: Biden initially wasn’t going to endorse but was pressured into doing so due to poor optics.
Halperin also threw more cold water on the Democrats.
“There's no doubt in my mind that the polling as I've characterized it this week is accurate, that right now Trump would win and that the numbers are moving in his direction,” says @MarkHalperin. Kamala Harris' “problems in each individual state with different demographic groups… pic.twitter.com/3nbDF3RatM
— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) October 12, 2024
“There's no doubt in my mind that the polling as I've characterized it this week is accurate, that right now Trump would win and that the numbers are moving in his direction,” he said. Democrats have reached out to him, and based on their questions, he knows they’re nervous.
One CNN pollster he’s in contact with says there’s one state that Kamala isn’t winning. Could she win it? Sure, but the ex-MSNBC analyst says he trusts this pollster, who has deep ties to the state in question, and in his opinion, no matter what the polling data says, the Democrats aren’t taking it. There are many paths to 270 for Kamala that involve this state. Without it, it’s unlikely that she can win, but anything can happen.
Of course, Halperin didn’t name the pollster or the crucial state in question. Still, given how underwater Kamala is with key Democratic voter groups, raising $1 billion only to end with a tie, and the underestimating of the Trump vote—yeah, Democrats should be soaked in sweat.