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There's Been Plenty of Swing State Polls Recently

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  October 02, 2024 8:00 PM

When it comes to this close and competitive election, whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former and potentially future President Donald Trump wins is likely going to come down to voters in key swing states. Sure enough, that's what many of the polls have been taking a look at. Throughout this week, there's been a flurry of those key swing state polls coming in.

We've covered before how Georgia has been Trump's best swing state, and it also has a significant amount of electoral votes, 16 of them. Guy has also noted that the election could come down to Pennsylvania, which has the most electoral votes of the swing states, at 19. 

A Quinnipiac University poll made headlines last week, as it showed Harris going down in support. She and Trump were tied at 48 percent among likely voters, while Trump led 48-47 percent in a full field. 

This week, another poll came out, specifically surveying likely voters in Georgia and North Carolina, another swing state. Sure enough, the Peach State continues to look like one of Trump's best, as he's up 50-45 percent against Harris, and even up 50-44 percent in a full field. 

In North Carolina, Trump leads 49-48 percent, and in a full field leads 49-47 percent. 

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With those margins, the poll write-up highlights how Trump is indeed ahead in Georgia, but that North Carolina remains "too close to call."

"All eyes are on the South as Georgia and North Carolina, turbocharged by 32 electoral votes between them, can make or break the two candidates in a race that looks to be leaning Trump's way in Georgia at the moment and churning toward a tight finish in North Carolina," Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy is quoted as saying. 

As we've seen in just about every poll, Trump leads Harris on the top issues: the economy and immigration, and by healthy enough margins. 

In Georgia, 53 percent say they think Trump would do a better job on handling the economy, while 44 percent say so about Harris. In North Carolina, 52 percent say Trump would do a better job on the economy, while 46 percent say so about Harris. 

Trump does even better on immigration, though. In Georgia and North Carolina, 53 percent say they think Trump would do a better job on the issue. Forty-three percent say so about Harris in Georgia, while she does slightly better in North Carolina, in that 45 percent think she'd do a better job handling immigration. 

The only issue where Harris leads is on abortion. Fifty percent in both Georgia and North Carolina say she'd do a better job handling the issue, while 43 percent say so about Trump in Georgia, and 44 percent say so in North Carolina. 

When it comes to "international conflicts," Trump leads in Georgia by 52-46 percent, and by 51-47 percent in North Carolina. In dealing with "a crisis that put the country at great risk," Trump leads Harris by 50-46 percent in Georgia, and by even wider margins in North Carolina, 53-45 percent. 

Trump even has an edge on Harris in both Georgia and North Carolina on "preserving democracy in the United States," which may be particularly bad news for the Harris-Walz ticket given how much Democrats warn that Trump is a supposed threat. Trump leads by 49-47 percent in Georgia, and by 49-48 percent in North Carolina. 

Malloy also highlighted how these issues could be an issue for Harris. "On issues, as the presidential horse race thunders toward November 5th, Harris confronts a troubling Trump trifecta: he leads her on the economy and immigration and has the edge when it comes to who would best handle a national crisis," he said. 

Trump's favorable ratings are also better, in both states. He's even in Georgia, with a 48 percent favorable and unfavorable rating, and is at +1 in North Carolina, with a 49-48 percent favorable rating. 

Harris is particularly underwater in Georgia, with a 50-43 percent unfavorable rating, which may explain why Trump enjoys such a lead there. She's at a 49-47 percent unfavorable rating in North Carolina. 

The poll was conducted September 25-29, with 942 likely voters in Georgia for which there was a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points and 953 likely voters in North Carolina, where the MOE was also plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. 

Another poll for North Carolina, this one from The Washington Post, shows Trump leading by 50-48 percent among likely voters. 

The Washington Post's write-up also spoke to the enthusiasm among partisans:

Turnout motivation is high across party lines, with 93 percent of registered Republicans and registered Democrats saying they are certain to vote. An 84 percent majority of Republicans say they are extremely motivated to turn out, slightly higher than the 78 percent of Democrats who say the same.

Trump supporters are also more motivated than Harris supporters, by 83-81 percent, as a graph included in the write-up also shows. 

Perhaps the days of Democrats being more motivated to support their candidate, especially since Harris is at least someone other than President Joe Biden, are over.

This poll has both Trump and Harris with higher unfavorable numbers, though Trump fares slightly better, with 47-46 percent unfavorable/favorable rating, while Harris has a 48-45 percent unfavorable/favorable rating.

When it comes to issues being regarded as "extremely important" to their vote, this poll seems to be a bit of an outlier, as only 59 percent say so about the economy and only 43 percent say so about immigration. That being said, Trump still leads Harris by 52-43 percent on the economy when it comes to who voters think will do a better job. He also leads Harris by 54-37 percent on immigration, the widest margin on all of the issues.

The poll was conducted September 25-29 with 1,001 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. 

In the middle of such a poll, Hurricane Helene hit North Carolina and other states in the region, so time will tell if that perhaps has an effect on a rather close race, in addition to how both polls show Democrat Josh Stein leading Republican Mark Robinson in the gubernatorial election.

Even more polls were conducted looking to Georgia, North Carolina, and/or other swing states, with similar results.

In the CBS News Battleground state estimates, North Carolina and Georgia were actually the best states for Trump, where he leads Harris by 49-48 percent and by 50-48 percent, respectively, per the September 30 estimates among registered voters.

In a Cook Political Swing State survey, looking between Trump and Harris with leaners, Georgia is Trump's best state where he leads 49-47 percent against Harris with likely voters.

Trump and Harris are also tied in North Carolina, at 49 percent each. 

According to RealClearPolling, Trump has a +0.1 edge overall in the top battleground states, with Georgia once again being one of his best states, as he leads by +1.5 over Harris. He leads by +1.7 in Arizona against Harris, however. He also leads Harris by +0.6 in North Carolina. The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania. 

The betting markets are also particularly close. At one point on Wednesday, Trump and Harris were tied with a 49 percent chance of winning the election, though Harris has gone up to 50 percent while Trump has remained at 49 percent. 

Time will tell if the post-debate polls show any improvement for Trump. Granted, it was just the vice presidential debate, but Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) did particularly well against Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN). 

Snap polls released right afterwards showed that Vance bested Walz in the debate.