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Is Georgia the Best Battleground State for Trump? Here's What the Polls Say.

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  September 26, 2024 4:00 PM

Before President Joe Biden was forced out of the race by his fellow Democrats in July, the 2024 race was looking particularly good for former and potentially future President Donald Trump. This included how Trump was faring in the swing states, with the Sun Belt state of Georgia among them. Now that Vice President Kamala Harris has replaced Biden as the nominee, without earning a single primary vote, the race has gotten tighter, though Trump still has a chance in this close and competitive election, including in Georgia.

RealClearPolling had Trump leading Biden by +3.8 in Georgia, which is comfortable enough, but it wasn't even his best swing state. He's currently up by +2.2 against Harris, the largest lead either candidate has in the swing states. Many of the average leads for Trump or Harris are less than 1 percent and well within any margins of error. 

Another telling point about Georgia is that it offers 16 electoral votes, second only to Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes when it comes to the swing states. Harris only leads by +0.6 in the Keystone State.

In commenting on the polls that look good for Trump, particularly a national poll out of CNN this week, Guy rightly urged caution regarding the data. There does appear to be a bit of a pattern regarding how Trump looks to be doing in Georgia, though.

On Wednesday, CBS News/YouGov released a poll showing Trump leading Harris by 51-49 percent among likely voters in the Peach State. Such results had streiff of RedState noting, "New Georgia Poll Hints That State is Out of Reach for Kamala Harris."

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A big finding in that poll, and virtually every legitimate poll we've seen at the national level and in the battleground states, is that Trump leads on the economy. It also helps that 70 percent of registered voters say they're "very concerned" about a strong economy.

The poll also showed that 86 percent of likely voters consider the economy a "major factor" in their vote for president, and 79 percent said so about inflation, making them the two top issues.

Close to a majority of registered voters, 49 percent, say Trump's policies would make them "financially better off," and a plurality, at 45 percent, say Harris' policies would make them "financially worse off."

A majority of voters say that neither Harris nor Trump's policies would make housing more affordable. Fifty-six percent say Harris' policies would not, while 44 percent say they would. Fifty-four percent say Trump's policies would not, while 46 percent say they would. This is especially damning to the Democratic nominee, given how much the Harris-Walz campaign harps on supposedly affordable housing. 

Among registered voters, 41 percent say only Trump's policies "would make housing more affordable," while 39 percent say the same about Harris. 

While abortion as an issue does favor Harris, a majority of registered voters, 51 percent, do acknowledge Trump's actual position, with the poll phrasing it as "leave abortion laws to the states to decide" when it comes to what they think he'll do if elected. This comes despite how much the Harris-Walz campaign and Democrats overall try to fearmonger about a supposed "national abortion ban" on the issue.

Further, for all of these concerns with democracy mentioned in the poll and felt among Democratic voters – with 77 percent of Democrats saying they're "very concerned" we'll "have a functioning democracy" in the "next few years" – Trump actually leads on this issue. 

A plurality of registered voters, 45 percent, say Harris' policies will "make U.S. democracy weaker," and 42 percent say they will make it "stronger." Those numbers are flipped for Trump, with 45 percent saying his policies will "make U.S. democracy stronger" and 42 percent saying he'll make it "weaker."

Some more bad news for Harris, besides the economy, is she's just not where she needs to be with black voters. This is the case with this poll and others. As the CBS News write-up highlighted:

The Atlanta metro area and its diverse suburbs were key to Democrats' statewide victories in 2020 and 2022. At the moment, Harris isn't matching Mr. Biden's 2020 support in these counties.

And while Black voters are backing her in large numbers, they aren't doing so at quite the same rates they voted for Mr. Biden four years back. Harris does slightly better among Black women than Black men, and even a small increase in Black support for her would make the race dead even.

Although by 53-47 percent of black likely voters believe that Trump is "not trying to earn" the support of black voters, this could perhaps be an opportunity for the Republican nominee, especially since his numbers did fare better on such a question previously.

It's also interesting that even a significant number voters who may not "like" Trump say they're voting for him. 

A majority of registered voters say they "like" how Harris handles herself personally, at 52 percent, while 36 percent say the same about Trump. Forty-eight percent say they "dislike" how Harris handles herself personally, while 64 percent say they "dislike" Trump. However, 21 percent who "dislike" Trump are voting for him anyway. Just 5 percent say the same about Harris. 

This shows, at least for a significant number of voters, it's not so much about personality as it is about who can do a better job of leading the country. 

We saw something similar in the CNN poll, though it asked about candidates being perceived as "extreme," with more saying they thought Trump was over Harris. 

"A small group of those who see Trump as too extreme are voting for him anyway: He holds the support of 10% of likely voters who consider his views and policies to be too extreme, while Harris has the backing of just 4% of those likely voters who feel she is too extreme," the CNN write-up mentioned. 

This CBS News poll shows better news for Trump, though, regarding ideology. 

A plurality of registered voters, 47 percent, consider Harris to be "more liberal than you would like her to be." This includes a plurality or majority of several key demographics, including men (51 percent), women (43 percent), those 45-64 (57 percent), those 65+ (61 percent), Independents (50 percent), white voters (68 percent), voters with no degree (71 percent), and those with a four-year degree or more (63 percent).

A plurality, 41 percent, considers Trump to be "as conservative as you would like." 

Democrats (65 percent) and liberals (77 percent) are also much less likely to consider Trump to be too conservative than Republicans and conservatives (85 percent each) are to consider Harris to be too liberal. The split is also more even when it comes to Independents considering Trump to be too conservative as opposed to just the right amount (41-37 percent). 

The poll was conducted September 20-24 with 1,441 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The MOE among likely voters is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

Regarding other polls included by RCP to bring us to the +2.2 lead for Trump, Marist has Trump up over Harris among likely voters, 50-49 percent, with the MOE of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. Rasmussen Reports has Trump leading among likely voters by 50-47 percent, with the MOE at plus or minus 3 percentage points. 

Rasmussen Reports is a Republican-leading pollster, but plenty of other polls show Trump leading +3 in Georgia. It's not even Trump's best showing, which would be +4 in Georgia, as The New York Times/Siena College showed last week, as we covered at the time.

The "best" recent poll for Harris in Georgia included in the RCP average is one from AmGreatness/TIPP, where the candidates are tied at 48 percent each, with the MOE at plus or minus 3.5 percentage points among likely voters.

Looking at it another way, Polymarket as of Thursday gives Trump a 61 percent chance of winning Georgia and puts him only slightly more ahead in the swing state of Arizona, where he has a 63 percent chance. 

Another good sign out of Georgia is how Trump and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp buried the hatchet last month, with Kemp coming out in support of the Republican nominee the same night that Harris took the stage at the DNC. 

It truly looks to be a close and competitive election, and we're now less than six weeks away.