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Something Is Going on With This Governor's Approval Rating at a Key Moment

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  August 22, 2024 12:15 PM

Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin has been a formidable force in the Republican Party ever since 2021, when he became the first Republican elected to the position since 2009. He also helped elect more Republicans at the state level in that election. Youngkin has remained a popular governor, which led to some chatter that he would be a good pick to be the running mate for former and potentially future President Donald Trump or perhaps some Cabinet position. Ultimately, Trump went with Senator JD Vance (R-OH), who has been a powerful mouthpiece for the Republican nominee on the campaign trail and in media appearances. 

Youngkin has not only maintained his approval rating, it's recently gone up. Per a new poll from the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, Youngkin has a 59 percent approval rating with likely voters and a 54 percent favorable rating. Both are the highest for Youngkin in his term. 

In writing for the Washington Examiner, Paul Bedard notes that this makes Youngkin the sixth most popular governor in the country. 

Zack Roday of Youngkin's Spirit of Virginia PAC also highlighted on X that Youngkin has a 66 percent job approval rating with Independents and a 59 percent favorable rating with the key demographic. 

The poll also shows good news for Youngkin in that 51 percent believe Virginia is going in the right direction, even while 71 percent believe the United States as a whole is on the wrong track.  

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Virginians like Youngkin and the direction he's taking the commonwealth, but they certainly repudiate the Biden-Harris administration. Almost three years later, it may be why Youngkin beat out his Democratic opponent, former Governor Terry McAuliffe, who had been elected in 2013 and came back for another go in 2021, since governors are prohibited from running for back to back terms in Virginia. McAuliffe had admitted in October 2021 that President Joe Biden isn't very popular, yet still had him come campaign for him in the final days of the race. 

In this most recent poll, Biden has a 62 percent disapproval rating, the highest during his time in office. Similarly, 61 percent of Virginians have an unfavorable rating of Biden, while just 37 percent have a favorable rating. 

Bedard also addressed Youngkin not being Trump's pick, and how this could actually help the governor in his future prospects, stating, "Youngkin may also have benefited from staying off the Trump ticket, putting him in a good position to run for president in 2028." 

It's also worth looking at this year's presidential election, and how Youngkin might play a role there. "Trump has kept Virginia in play for the fall presidential election. While Vice President Kamala Harris has opened the door to winning, the Democrats are not starting in a position of power," Bedard writes. Youngkin spoke at the RNC last month and at a rally with Trump in Virginia on June 28, the day after Biden’s disastrous debate performance against Trump. 

When Biden was still on the ticket, the race looked close. Trump even had a slim edge at one point. RealClearPolitics moved it into the "Toss-Up" column back in June. This comes even as Virginia has voted for the Democratic nominee for president every election year since 2008. 

Now that we're looking at a Harris-Trump race, Harris does have an edge, but it's not where she wants to be in a state that has voted for Democrats for the past several races and by more comfortable margins.

The Roanoke College poll was conducted August 12-16, with 691 completed interviews of likely voters. There was a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. 

Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College notes in his analysis, "The switch from Biden to Harris made a difference in Virginia, but perhaps not as great as some may have thought.”

“The news for Harris is certainly better than it was for Biden, but her three-point lead is still within the margin of error,” he adds.

The Roanoke College poll from May showed Biden and Trump tied. 

"Both candidates are polling very well within their party, and there is a miniscule number of undecided voters. The party bases remain important, as always. The number who say they will vote third party is declining, and those voters may well determine who wins in Virginia," Wilson also shared. 

Trump and Harris are similar with their favorable ratings, as both are seen as more so unfavorable. Trump has a 40 percent favorable rating and 57 percent unfavorable rating, while Harris only does slightly better with a 43 percent favorable rating and a 53 percent unfavorable rating. 

If Virginia remains this close, even with Biden being replaced by Harris, who is set to give her nomination acceptance speech Thursday night at the DNC despite never receiving a primary vote, the Democrats could still remain in trouble for November.