As undemocratic as the process has been to select the Democratic nominee for 2024, it's pretty much looking like it will be Vice President Kamala Harris. She still has to pick a running mate, which she's expected to do by next Tuesday, and she'll then tour with this person across several key swing states, with Philadelphia being the first city. Among the likely picks include senators and governors, many of them from some of those battleground states. Harris herself has had a poor image in the polls, though she looks to be getting a boost during this honeymoon period. What about those potential running mate picks, though? And, given that many of them are from must-win states, it's also worth asking if such a pick will help Harris win in November.
On Wednesday, AP-NORC released a poll showing U.S. adults' views on Harris, the race between her and former and potentially future President Donald Trump, as well as some of those on Harris' short list to be her running mate.
ABC News on Thursday highlighted the poll's findings on various contenders, including Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA). While 60 percent of adults say they "don't know enough to say" if they have a favorable view of him, his favorable/unfavorable ratings are at 21 and 19 percent, respectively.
Since the poll was conducted, and not long before it was released, a report from POLITICO led to increased speculation that Shapiro will be Harris' running mate. He's a popular enough governor, and again, Philadelphia is the first stop on Harris' tour. He's also reportedly cancelled plans.
That being said, so-called progressives are concerned about Shapiro being Jewish and for daring to support Israel, our ally in the Middle East. Democrats do have the pro-Hamas and anti-Israel base of the party to cater to for voters, after all. There's also been increased commotion, though, as Matt highlighted on Thursday night, citing The Daily Beast, about Shapiro's role in covering up sexual harassment.
Still, Shapiro could otherwise be a pretty good pick. Currently, Trump leads Harris by +2.7 in Pennsylvania. That lead could certainly shrink or even disappear with Shapiro on the ticket. There goes 19 electoral votes, and part of the Blue Wall.
Then there's Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ). Again, a majority, though it's slightly less than say so about Shapiro, say they "don't know enough to say" how they feel about him. with 53 percent saying so. His favorable/unfavorable ratings are at 29 and 17 percent, respectively.
ABC News' write-up speaks to how Shapiro and Kelly could indeed be likely picks, that is if these poll results play any role:
Americans are more likely to have a positive view of Kelly than a negative view. About 3 in 10 U.S. adults have a very or somewhat favorable view of Kelly, while about 2 in 10 have a negative view. Drawing more good feelings than bad is a relative rarity in presidential politics these days: Biden and former President Donald Trump have been viewed more negatively than positively for several years now.
Like many of the other contenders, though, Kelly is nowhere near a household name. About half of Americans don’t know enough to have an opinion about him.
But Democrats are especially likely to have warm feelings about Kelly. Forty-five percent have a favorable view of Kelly. Only about 1 in 10 have an unfavorable view of him, and around 4 in 10 don’t know enough to say. Older Democrats — those 45 and older — are especially likely to have a positive view of Kelly, while younger Democrats are more likely to be unfamiliar with him.
He’s proven to be a battle-tested campaigner, winning a special election in 2020 to flip the Arizona Senate seat from Republican control and then retaining it two years later for a full, six-year term. The Navy veteran is a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and has been an influential voice among Democrats on immigration and border security, long a political vulnerability for Harris that Republicans are seeking to exploit.
Shapiro is broadly unknown to Americans and Democrats, except in the Northeast, where he has more name recognition and higher favorability. The poll found that 6 in 10 U.S. adults — including 57% of Democrats — don't know enough to have an opinion about Shapiro. About 2 in 10 Americans view him favorably, and a similar share view him unfavorably.
The picture isn't very different among Democrats. About one-quarter of Democrats have a positive view of Shapiro, while 16% have a negative view. Older Democrats are more likely than younger ones to have a favorable opinion of Shapiro, but overall, most have yet to develop a view.
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Unlike the other contenders asked about in the AP-NORC poll, though, [Shapiro]’s significantly better known — and liked — in his home region. In the Northeast, 4 in 10 U.S. adults have a favorable view of him. Another 4 in 10, roughly, don’t know enough to have an opinion of him, while about 2 in 10 Northeasterners view him negatively.
Respondents were also asked about Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY), who was just reelected last November. Such a pick doesn't seem as likely, especially because then Kentucky could end up with a Republican governor once more if Beshear leaves office. Sixty-eight percent say they "don't know enough to say," while his favorable/unfavorable ratings are a paltry 17 and 15 percent, respectively.
The poll also asked about Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC), although he took his name out of contention on Monday, in part because he's looking to run for the U.S. Senate in 2026. A whopping 74 percent said they "didn't know enough to say" if they had a favorable or unfavorable view, and his favorable/unfavorable ratings are lowest of all, at 12 and 13 percent, respectively.
ABC News also spoke to another name not included in the poll, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) who heads the Democratic Governors Association:
Like the other governors who are being discussed, Gov. Tim Walz doesn’t have much of a national profile — and that also means he’s a relatively blank slate. He wasn’t included in the AP-NORC poll, but a new ABC News/Ipsos poll, which asked about favorability slightly differently, found that about 9 in 10 U.S. adults don’t know enough to have an opinion on him. Among Americans with a view, opinions are split between positive and negative.
Walz, who also served for 12 years in the House, moved up on Harris' shortlist in recent days after he coined “weird” as a new talking point to describe the Republican ticket. It's a line now used widely by the vice president and other Democrats.
That's not all, though. He isn't just responsible for the campaign of calling Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) "weird." He was also one of the many characters to call into the "White Dudes for Harris" Zoom call at the start of this week, during which he earned headlines, as Amy Curtis at our sister site of Twitchy highlighted, for claiming socialism means "neighborliness."
As mentioned, the poll looked to other factors. For all this talk about enthusiasm for Harris, as well as the boost she's getting, and questions surrounding that as to if people really are more likely to come out in vote come November, it still remains the case that Republicans are feeling better about their candidate than Democrats do, although that could most certainly backfire if enthusiasm to go to the polls is replaced by complacency and overconfidence.
The write up from the AP-NORC highlighted the advantages that Trump has. "Democrats are supportive of Harris, but many adults think Trump has the electoral advantage," the headline even reads.
A graphic included in the write-up and shared to the AP-NORC's X account highlights how "A large share of Republicans have faith in Trump winning than Democrats do of Harris."
Overall respondents, by 56-42 percent, believe that Trump is likely to prevail over Harris, while 56-39 percent of Independents believe so. Eighty-eight percent of Republicans believe Trump will win, while only 71 percent of Democrats believe Harris will win.
The poll was conducted Jul 25-29 with 1,143 adults nationwide. It's a good sample size, but worth highlighting how it's adults as opposed to voters. There was a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
56% percent of adults believe Donald Trump is likely to prevail in the 2024 general election if Kamala Harris is the Democratic nominee. https://t.co/k7QMUyxQIS pic.twitter.com/A1JHEyrNIk
— AP-NORC Center (@APNORC) July 31, 2024