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Biden Won Virginia by +10 in 2020. Here's How He's Polling There Now.

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  July 16, 2024 4:00 PM

There have been some major moments in this presidential election that have been unlike any other. While we're still waiting to see if and how the assassination attempt against former and potentially future President Donald Trump, it looks like it will further energize his supporters, including in the key swing state of Pennsylvania where the shooting occurred on Saturday. It's not merely Pennsylvania that is a swing state, though. The Trump campaign, even before Saturday, considers certain states where President Joe Biden and other Democrats have won big in the past to be swing states this time around. This includes the commonwealth of Virginia.

The Democratic nominee has won Virginia every presidential election since 2008. In 2020, Biden won by 54.1 percent to Trump's 44 percent. But then, in 2021, Virginia elected Glenn Youngkin as governor, Winsome Earle Sears as lieutenant governor, and Jason Miyares as attorney general, all Republicans. It was the first time the commonwealth elected a Republican governor since Bob McDonnell in 2009.

Polls have been showing the 2024 election to be close in Virginia for some time now, and RealClearPolitics actually has it in the "Toss-Up" category. Decision Desk HQ has also shown Trump to have a slight edge, though well within the margin of error, and they have Biden considerably more likely than Trump to win.

On Monday, polls from both The New York Times/Siena College and Virginia Commonwealth University-Wilder School were released. Although the results were mixed in showing which candidate was ahead, both polls show the leading candidate within the margin of error.

Among registered voters in Virginia in that first poll, Biden leads Trump by 38-36 percent, while Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. enjoys 9 percent support. In a head-to-head matchup, including leaners, Biden leads 48-46 percent. Biden leads 40-38 percent among likely voters and RFK Jr. has 7 percent support. Among such voters, including leaders Biden leads 35-30 percent, while a significant 35 percent said they "don't know/refused."

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That NYT/Siena College poll also shows that among registered voters in Pennsylvania, Trump leads 41-38 percent, while 8 percent support RFK Jr. In a head-to-head matchup among leaners, Trump leads 48-44 percent. Among likely voters in the commonwealth, Trump leads Biden by 42-40 percent, while RFK Jr. enioys 7 percent support. In a head-to-head matchup, including leaners, Trump leads 48-45 percent. 

A write-up from The New York Times warned in the headline that "Biden Facing Challenges in Two Must-Win States, Times/Siena Polls Find," with the subheadline also highlighting that Biden is only "slightly ahead" in Virginia. 

As the write-up also mentioned:

By almost any Electoral College map calculation, it would be nearly impossible for Mr. Biden to win re-election without Pennsylvania.

Of potential greater concern for Mr. Biden and Democrats in the polls, which were conducted from July 9 through July 12, is the prospect that Virginia, a state that few strategists from either party thought would be in contention this year, appears to have turned competitive in a Trump-Biden rematch. In that state, Mr. Biden has a lead of 3 percentage points over Mr. Trump among likely voters, which is within the margin of error.

The last time a Republican won Virginia in a presidential race was 2004, when President George W. Bush beat his Democratic challenger, John F. Kerry, on his way to winning a second term in the White House.

That poll was conducted July 9-12 in Virginia with 661 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, and July 9-11 in Pennsylvania with 872 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. 

Then there's the VCU-Wilder School, which actually shows Trump ahead. He leads Biden 39-36 percen among Virginians. That 36 percent figure is also Biden's approval rating among Virginia voters. Meanwhile, Youngkin enjoys a 50 percent approval rating. 

L. Douglas Wilder, the former Democratic governor of Virginia, is quoted as highlighting concerns for Biden, especially when it comes to his showing among black voters and down-ballot races. "I think the results show that Virginia is truly a 'battleground state' for the presidency. The drop by 20% (46%) of Black Virginians since December, where 67% supported Biden, should be concerning relative to turnout affecting congressional races, in particular in competitive districts 7 and 2," he said.

Virginia's 7th Congressional District will be in open seat in November, as Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is running for governor in 2025. Republican Derrick Anderson is facing Democrat Eugene Vindman in that race. Currently, Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans represents the 2nd Congressional District, having unseated the Democratic incumbent in 2022, then Rep. Elaine Luria. 

Cook Political Report gives the 7th District a "Lean Democrat" rating and a "Lean Republican" rating for the 2nd District. 

The poll was conducted June 24-July 3, so not only before the assassination attempt against Trump, but some of the respondents were contacted before Biden's disastrous debate performance on June 27. The poll included 809 adults living in Virginia with a margin of error at plus or minus 4.81 percentage points. 

Bringing this back to Youngkin, the governor has been a strong supporter of Trump, as evidenced by his appearances at the Faith & Freedom conference last month as well as at a rally beside Trump in Virginia on June 28. 

The governor was at the RNC in Milwaukee on Monday. During the afternoon session, he and Miyares were there to cast the Virginia delegate votes to formally nominate Trump. 

During Monday's evening session, Youngkin reminded how long it had been since the commonwealth elected a Republican as governor--12 years--and mentioned it in the context of expressing hope and confidence that Virginia would elect another Republican in 2024, by sending Trump to the White House. 

"After 12 years of only electing Democrats statewide, in November 2021, Virginians elected a Republican outside businessman as their 74th governor," he said to applause. "And I believe this year Virginia will elect another Republican outside businessman as President of the United States!" 

Youngkin had highlighted Trump's business experience and outsider political status throughout his remarks, as well as how Trump and the choice this election represented "common sense."