There’s a reason why the June 27 debate will be crucial for Biden. It could provide him a rampart to mount a comeback among the key voter groups, leaving him in droves, especially in states that Democrats typically don’t need to worry about. The media and Democrats lauded Biden’s unhinged, partisan, and unusually boisterous State of the Union address as a pitch to the base to stick with him this year. It didn’t work. Black voters under 50 have fled Biden, causing Trump to be on pace to have a historic performance with this demographic, which would drive liberals insane if that were to come to fruition.
That got Democrats’ attention, along with Biden’s lackluster performance with young people, Hispanics, and now Muslim voters. The Obama coalition is not enthused or pleased with Biden; that much is clear. The latest poll to give Democrats heartburn was the one conducted by J. Ann Selzer in Iowa, where Trump is beating Biden by 18 points:
Two weeks after he was convicted in a New York courtroom of multiple felony counts, former Republican president Donald Trump still holds a double-digit lead over Democratic incumbent Joe Biden in Iowa.
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Trump leads Biden 50% to 32% among likely voters.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who says he has qualified for Iowa’s presidential ballot, earns 9%. Another 2% of likely Iowa voters pick Libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver, 3% say they would vote for someone else, 1% would not vote and 3% are not sure.
The results come less than five months out from Election Day and before either candidate formally accepts his party’s nomination at their respective national conventions this summer.
[…]
As the candidates move into the general election season, Biden’s approval rating among all Iowans remains low at 28%. Another 67% disapprove of his performance as president, and 5% are not sure.
That’s down a tick from the 29% approval he earned in February 2024 and his 30% showing in March 2023.
Selzer notes Biden’s approval rating is in “consistent decline.” Yet pollster Frank Luntz had a different take, pointing out that Trump’s polling in states like Minnesota, which the former president almost stole from Hillary in 2016, is more concerning.
The pollster added that he feels the media doesn’t understand what’s happening vis-à-vis Trump’s indictment and the former president keeping it close in reliably blue states. These events would have killed political careers a decade ago. Still, Trump is either in a dead heat or leading Biden in national polls after being found guilty of criminal charges, albeit ones that were fraudulent and politically motivated.
'Oh My God': Frank Luntz Impressed Trump 'Making It Close' Race In 'Reliable' Dem State After Conviction pic.twitter.com/k8W5MJFRJo
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) June 19, 2024
Luntz added that he’s also not convinced by independent voters' positions. He thinks they hate both candidates and both parties and will vote out of anger, desperation, and resentment regarding where we are as a country politically.
It’s something to look out for, but the Iowa poll is significant. There’s no way Trump can win Iowa by 18 and not take Michigan, Wisconsin, or both. He might be able to steal Minnesota away. It’s early, but the polling now has Biden on the losing track, and the president’s 2024 playbook is reportedly around issues that no one cares about, like Trump, January 6, political violence, and democracy.