Presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump is ahead of President Biden in five battleground states, according to a new set of surveys released by The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer.
Among registered voters in head-to-head matchups in Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, the former president is ahead, though he trails Biden in Wisconsin.
When looking at likely voters, the race was closer.
Mr. Trump led in five states as well, but Mr. Biden edged ahead in Michigan while trailing only narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While Mr. Biden won all six of those states in 2020, victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would be enough for him to win re-election, provided he won everywhere else he did four years ago.
The results were similar in a hypothetical matchup that included minor-party candidates and the independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who won an average of 10 percent of the vote across the six states and drew roughly equally from the two major-party candidates. (NYT)
There are also red flags for Biden's campaign among key demographics.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, even though each group gave Mr. Biden more than 60 percent of their vote in 2020. Mr. Trump also wins more than 20 percent of Black voters — a tally that would be the highest level of Black support for any Republican presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
The polls suggest that Mr. Trump’s strength among young and nonwhite voters has at least temporarily upended the electoral map, with Mr. Trump surging to a significant lead in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada — relatively diverse Sun Belt states where Black and Hispanic voters propelled Mr. Biden to signature victories in the 2020 election. (NYT)
The surveys show that discontent with Israel's war against Hamas, cost of living, and immigration are key issues weighing on Biden's numbers.
New NYT swing state poll finds Trump ahead in 5 of the 6 states.
— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) May 13, 2024
Nevada: Trump +12
Arizona: Trump +7
Georgia: Trump +10
Michigan: Trump+7
Pennsylvania: Trump +3
Wisconsin: Biden +2https://t.co/PQVlsxGj20 pic.twitter.com/VqKK9KMYr7
NYT battleground polls are pretty much a disaster for Biden, but one faint silver lining for him is that his vote share generally improves once a 'likely voter' screen is applied--so he's a bit stronger among likelies than registereds. But he's still trailing in 5 of 6 states: pic.twitter.com/pvo7odBqy8
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) May 13, 2024
Polls conducted in the third and fourth week of the Trump trial, amid wall-to-wall media coverage of Trump's legal situation. From NYT: https://t.co/y3eeLXHxw1 pic.twitter.com/AtJR3z2zsK
— Byron York (@ByronYork) May 13, 2024