Tipsheet
Premium

Trump Just Got More Good Polling News, but What About Key Senate Races?

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  May 01, 2024 12:01 PM

New battleground polling from Emerson and The Hill shows former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in all seven swing states surveyed.  In case you missed those outcomes, Trump leads Biden both in head-to-head settings, as well as within wider fields.  In some states (Michigan, Arizona), there was no gap in Trump's margin between those two scenarios.  In the rest (Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), Trump's advantage grows within a five-person race, versus the two-way ballot question.  The top line results look like this:

Notably, this "data was collected between April 25-29, 2024," meaning that Trump's New York City trial was underway while these surveys were in the field.  Like the CNN poll we reviewed earlier in the week, thus far, it doesn't look like the heavy coverage of those legal proceedings has hurt Trump's standing.  It's possible that it's helped him.  What about a conviction in this case?  How might that impact voters' choices in these states?

These surveys also tested several critical Senate races happening in these battleground states.  As we've covered previously, the 2024 Senate map looks very promising for Republicans, who need to gain two net seats to regain an upper chamber majority.  The three most vulnerable seats for Team Red to capture (West Virginia, Ohio, Montana) aren't represented in the seven states polled here. But five others are:

In the Arizona U.S. Senate election, 45% support Democrat Ruben Gallego to replace retiring Senator Kyrsten Sinema, while 43% support Republican Kari Lake; 12% are undecided. In the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate election, 46% support incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey, 42% support Republican Dave McCormick, and 12% are undecided. In the Michigan U.S. Senate election, 42% support Democrat Elissa Slotkin for the open seat, 40% support Republican Mike Rogers, and 19% are undecided. In Wisconsin, 46% of voters support incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin, while 43% support Republican Eric Hovde. Eleven percent are undecided. In a hypothetical Nevada U.S. Senate matchup between incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen and Republican Sam Brown, Rosen leads 45% to 37%, with 18% undecided. 

The bad news for Republicans is that they're trailing in all five of these races, by between two and seven percentage points.  Arizona and Michigan (and West Virginia) are open seats; the other three involve Democratic incumbents (as do Ohio and Montana).  The better news is that in some of these races, the trajectories have moved toward GOP candidates over time.  CBS News polling shows two of these races less competitive, with Democrats ahead by seven points.  The GOP has an outside shot of gaining eight seats in November, if everything breaks perfectly (including Maryland, where moderate Republican Larry Hogan has opened a double-digit lead in several early polls).  Right now, however, I'd only call West Virginia a slam dunk for a GOP gain.  Roughly half a dozen others are in toss-up territory.  Usually, close Senate races tend to break the same way on Election Day.  

I'll leave you with NRSC Chairman Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) sounding generally bullish about how things are shaping up, though his warning about resources -- Democrats are massively out-raising Republicans -- is something of a red flag:

Recommended

Some Democrats Are Admitting They Lied Before The Election Derek Hunter
MSNBC Guest Who Went After Pete Hegseth Facing Backlash From All Sides Rebecca Downs

Additional note: A slew of other national polls show Trump ahead (Harvard/Harris Trump +5, Monmouth Trump +1), tied (Morning Consult), or slightly trailing (Public Opinion Strategies Biden +2).