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Remember All the Pro-Biden Excitement Over That Recent Poll? Here's What the New One Says.

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  April 11, 2024 10:00 AM

Late last month, Bloomberg/Morning Consult released a poll showing President Joe Biden faring better than previously thought in key swing states. To be clear, Biden was tied with former and potentially future President Donald Trump in one state — Pennsylvania, at 45 percent each — and Biden led Trump by +1 in Wisconsin, 46-45 percent. Trump still led in four of the six swing states. This is what the pro-Biden camp was getting excited about. There had also been mention of and excitement about a national Morning Consult poll where Biden had 44 percent to Trump's 43 percent. Since then, more national polls have come out.

The above national poll was conducted March 22-24. Then, another poll a few days later showed Biden was leading by +2, 44-42 percent. 

Morning Consult's Cameron Easley highlighted as a takeaway how Biden was tied with Independents. Even if this looked bad for Trump, who tends to lead with the voting group, a tie isn't too great for Biden, considering Independents helped him win in 2020. They also helped stop Hillary Clinton from winning the presidency in 2016. 

The latest poll from Morning Consult was conducted April 5-7. 

The +1 point lead is reversed, with Trump holding it this time over Biden, with the numbers still being at 44-43 percent. Trump also has more support among Republicans (90 percent) than Biden does among Democrats (86 percent). He has a slight lead with Independents, 36-34 percent, though 19 percent still say they'd vote for "someone else" and 12 percent say "don't know/no opinion."

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What's even more telling, though, than each candidate's support among members of their own party is how they retain their voters from 2020. While 83 percent of those who voted for Biden in 2020 say they'll do so again this November, that number is 90 percent for Trump.

The poll included 6,236 registered voters and has a margin of error of just plus or minus 1 percentage point, so that edge Trump has with holding onto his 2020 voters is significant. 

While Trump previously lost his favorability edge, one of the takeaways offered from the poll's write-up is how he's regained it there as well. Trump has a 45 percent favorable rating and a 50 percent unfavorable rating, while Biden has a 44 percent favorable rating and a 52 percent unfavorable rating. 

As the write-up also mentions, "The bulk of the electorate is still more likely to hold negative views about both major party contenders. However, voters are still more likely to report hearing something negative about Trump than Biden."

This should not shock anyone in the slightest. It should still, however, be disquieting to voters that the powers that be are determined for there to be more negative coverage of Trump as opposed to Biden. The latter not only has the power of the incumbency, but his politicized and weaponized Department of Justice has gone against the president's political opponent, including but not just Trump. States tried, and ultimately failed at the U.S. Supreme Court in a 9-0 decision, to get him thrown off the ballot. The mainstream media has also been out to get him through negative coverage. 

In this most recent poll, a full 50 percent of voters said they had "over the past week" heard coverage about Trump and that "it was mainly negative."

The trend line, not surprisingly, shows that Trump's always had the higher negative figure when it comes to the coverage voters say they've heard about him. 

When it comes to the issues voters say is "very important" to deciding their vote in 2024, it's not surprising that the economy is the one most selected, with 75 percent saying so. What is slightly surprising is that immigration, usually more of a top issue in other polls, is tied for fifth, at 64 percent. Other issues taking precedence include "National security" (70 percent), "Crime" (66 percent), and "Health care" (65 percent). Those other issues that enjoyed 64 percent of voters saying it was "very important" included "Jobs" and "Social Security & Medicare."

Immigration was also mentioned in the takeaways, an issue where 52 percent of voters said they had heard something about it in the past week and that it was "mainly negative." The only issue where more voters said they heard something about the issue and the coverage was "mainly negative" was regarding what's described as "The Israeli-Palestinian conflict," with 54 percent of voters saying so.

As the write-up mentions:

  • Immigration buzz improves: Voters are 40 percentage points more likely to report hearing something negative than positive about immigration recently, which, while still being deeply underwater, is also the best net buzz figure since mid-January.

As of Thursday morning, this poll is the most recent included by RealClearPolling, which shows Trump up +0.2 over Biden, 45.5 percent to 45.3 percent. Another recent poll of registered voters comes from Reuters/Ipsos, where Biden actually leads by +4, 41-37, though that's a lot of voters who are not choosing either of the two or who are not yet certain. 

It's worth repeatedly mentioning last month's poll and the pro-Biden excitement about it. The pro-Biden camp could end up looking very foolish, or the Republicans and Trump who didn't take them seriously enough could. We'll know in less than seven months.