Tipsheet

Here's Who Is Back in the Lead on Eve of Ohio Primary

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  March 18, 2024 5:45 PM

It's been a momentous few days for Bernie Moreno, who is now once more leading in an Emerson College poll when it comes to the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate race in Ohio. Last week as we covered, the Emerson College poll showed state Sen. Matt Dolan narrowly leading, though now Moreno is leading once more. This time, his lead is larger and outside the margin of error.

Moreno now leads with 38 percent, a 9-point lead over Dolan's 29 percent. Secretary of State Frank LaRose has dropped down to 12 percent, while 21 percent are still undecided.

When the undecided voters are pushed, the race gets more competitive, as Moreno has 44 percent to Dolan's 40 percent, just within the margin of error. LaRose gets a slight bump to 16 percent.

For these Republican primary voters, 37 percent say the economy is the top issue, followed by 29 percent who say immigration. Moreno fares well with both of those kinds of voters. For those who say the economy, Moreno enjoys 37 percent support compared to Dolan's 23 percent. He fares even better over Dolan when it comes to immigration, by 49-22 percent.

Education also plays a relevant role. "There is a significant divide on education in the Ohio primary," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling is quoted as saying. "Dolan leads Moreno among voters with postgraduate degrees, 38% to 24%, while voters whose highest degree is college are more split: 39% support Moreno, 32% Dolan. Voters without a college degree break for Moreno over Dolan, 43% to 24%."

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This poll was conducted March 17-18 with 450 likely Republican Primary voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

In the previous week's poll, Dolan led with 26 percent to Moreno's 23 percent while 16 percent favored LaRose. A plurality, at 32 percent, were still undecided.

Just before this final poll came out, former and potentially future President Donald Trump held a rally for Moreno in Dayton, Ohio, who also spoke. Trump had already endorsed Moreno last December. Not only did Trump praise Moreno, referring to him as a "America-First champion," but he also warned voters against Dolan, referring to him as "a weak RINO... who is trying to become the next Mitt Romney."

The rally came right after the Associated Press published a piece last Thursday claiming that Moreno had signed up for an account on the Adult Friend Finder site. However, as Andrew Conru, who wrote most of the code for the site posted to his X account, "there is no geolocation data tied to the account." Further, as Matt highlighted, Law Professor Jonathan Turley also addressed in a blog how the AP has opened itself up to a lawsuit.

Many of the quoted reposts mentioned the rally or the AP hit piece when sharing the poll. 

Whoever wins Tuesday's primary will go on to face vulnerable Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown in November in what is one of this year's "Toss-Up" races.