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Recent Poll Is Looking Pretty Darn Good for Donald Trump

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  February 29, 2024 4:00 PM

There's been a flurry of polls this week, as is to be expected as we get further into the primary and thus closer to the likely 2024 rematch between President Joe Biden and former and potentially future President Donald Trump. Not only is Trump maintaining his wide lead in the Republican primary against former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, but he's also maintaining a competitive edge for that hypothetical rematch against Biden. It's more than just the sheer numbers that look good for Trump, though.

Monday's release of the most recent Harvard CAPS-Harris poll found its way into VIP coverage to do with support for Israel and how young voters, particularly those 18-24, actually have a fondness for Trump. That poll also shows that when asked to choose between Trump and Biden, Trump enjoys a lead of Biden with 48-42 percent. Tellingly, Trump's 90 percent support among Republicans is higher than the 82 percent support Biden has from Democrats. Independents also narrowly favor Trump over Biden, by 42-39 percent.

Republican voters are also more likely than Democrats and Independents to believe that "Biden and Trump are good enough choices," with 49 percent saying so. Fifty-one percent believe the "Country needs another choice," with those numbers being at 67 percent for Democrats and 71 percent for Independents/others.

Even more telling is that among those three voting groups, Republicans are the only ones where a majority, at 57 percent, say they will not consider "an independent moderate candidate." Sixty-two percent of Democrats and 64 percent of Independents/others said they would though. 

The poll also shows Trump maintains his lead even when leaners are asked to choose between the two, and when voters are also given the option to choose third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein. 

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There's more good for Trump beyond that, though. Before the poll findings even get to the horserace between Trump and Biden, we have their approval and favorability ratings. 

It looks like voters might be experiencing some buyer's remorse. Fifty-seven percent say they approve of the job Trump did as president, including 37 percent who say they "strongly approve." The poll's findings note that "a majority of voters say they approve of the job Trump did as president, driven by a diverse segment of voters." Indeed, only Democrats (70 percent) and those voters categorized as "black or African-American" (55 percent) as well as Asians (57 percent) and those categorized as "other" (49 percent) are those demographics where a plurality or majority say they disapprove of Trump's presidency. 

Biden, meanwhile, has a 45 percent approval rating, while 54 percent disapprove, including 39 percent who "strongly disapprove." The poll's takeaway notes "Biden's approval has seen a small uptick but is still underwater," compared to 42 percent in January. 

There's only seven figures out of 22 who have a net positive rating, and Donald Trump is among them. He actually has the highest favorable rating, at 50 percent, while 47 percent have an unfavorable rating, giving him a +3 net rating. Only 43 percent have a favorable view of Biden, while 54 percent have an unfavorable viewing, giving him a -11 net rating. 

Bad news comes for Biden even when his name isn't mentioned in the question's phrasing. When it comes to top issues facing the country, 36 percent say immigration while 33 percent say "price increases/inflation." Biden has just a 35 percent approval rating on handling immigration, with a 39 percent approval rating on handling inflation, making them his worst issues in addition to the 38 percent approval rating Biden has on the Israel-Hamas war. The poll also later asked voters to choose what Biden's "biggest accomplishment" and "biggest failure" has been. Given the option to select three, a significant 44 percent chose "Created an open borders policy and a historic flood of immigrants."

Fifty-six percent also said that Trump will shake up the country for the better," as opposed to being "a danger to democracy [who] will hopelessly divide the country if elected." Wednesday's coverage noted that 65 percent of those voters 18-24 say he will "shake up the country for the better."

When it comes to the poll's December results, we examined how Democrats' weaponized and politicized indictments brought against Trump also look to be backfiring. That looks to be the case once more, as 58 percent believe that "Democrats are engaged in using the legal system in biased ways to take out apolitical opponent" and 55 percent believe that "Democrats are engaged in using the legal system in biased ways to takeout a political opponent."

Similarly, voters are also evenly split at 50 percent as to if Trump will receive a guilty verdict, though 54 percent saying the trials are "politically motivated." When it comes to questions about the civil cases brought against Trump, 51 percent of voters also believe that New York Attorney General Leticia James' case against Trump "was brought for political reasons to cripple Trump's campaign for the presidency."

Curiously, while 56 percent believe that Trump has committed crimes, voters are evenly divided at 50 percent, including those Independents/others, as to if he is a threat to democracy or not. 

A popular narrative that represented a hope for Democrats and concern for Republicans is that a conviction before the election could hurt, perhaps even kill Trump's chances. As we covered on Monday when reporting on his response to the request for a gag order from Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg in his case against Trump, The Article 3 Project's Mike Davis highlighted how this poll now debunks that.

The poll could spell good news for Republicans across the board come November. Sure, there's the matter of Trump's coattails. But voters also indicate they're evenly split on whether they approve or disapprove of the GOP, at 50 percent. A slight majority of voters, at 53 percent, say they disapprove of the Democratic Party, while 47 percent approve. 

The poll was conducted February 21-22 with 2,022 registered voters. With this poll included in the RealClearPolling average, Trump now has a lead of +2 over Biden.