On Monday, we celebrated Presidents' Day, with Democrats no doubt celebrating the release of a poll showing President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in some noteworthy places when ranked amongst their predecessors. Regardless of how you feel about either Trump or Biden, it's helpful to point out that we shouldn't even necessarily be evaluating where either of these presidents rank, especially since they haven't been out of office long enough. Further, Trump could still end up coming back and serving another term.
Before we get to the rankings, it's worth noting a serious typo Democrats made while trying to commemorate the date by honoring the remaining living Democratic presidents. At least that's what they were supposed to be doing, although they awkwardly forgot the 99-year-old Jimmy Carter.
Sister Toldjah, at our sister site RedState, highlighted the since-deleted post. People fortunately got screenshots.
RIP Jimmy Carter, I guess. pic.twitter.com/exwkfqQGv4
— GayPatriot 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🌈 (@GayPatriot) February 19, 2024
In reality, one would think that Biden would be thankful to Carter since more accurate polling, like approval ratings for this point in presidency, shows Carter is the only president more unpopular than Biden going back to President Dwight D. Eisenhower. Of course, Carter only served one term, as Ronald Reagan beat him in a landslide in the 1980 election.
The survey was conducted by Brandon Rottinghaus, University of Houston and Justin S. Vaughn at the Coastal Carolina University. According to the survey, respondents "included current and recent members of the President's & Executive Politics Section of the American Political Science Association," which is supposed to be "the foremost organization of social science experts in presidential politics, as well as scholars who had recently published peer-reviewed academic research in key related scholarly journals or academic presses." While 525 respondents were invited to participate, only 154 usable responses were received.
And yet, this year's edition of the Presidential Greatness Project Expert Survey has Biden placing 14th place, while Carter is in 22nd place. Trump, as you can probably guess, ranks dead last, in 45th place. Former President Grover Cleveland, our 22nd and 24th president, is only ranked once. That'll be helpful to know if Trump wins another term. Trump's place isn't unsurprising, not because he was a poor president, but because of the polarizing feelings surrounding him and his presidency. The people who hate him, especially in the mainstream media and academia, really hate him.
To add insult to injury, Trump comes in as one of the "most over-rated presidents," having been identified 27 times with a score of 2.7, with 1 being a perfect score. Respondents don't just seem to think poorly of Trump but also of his supporters.
And as if Biden's 14th place finish wasn't confusing enough, he's even considered one of the "most under-rated presidents," identified 42 times with a score of 2.9. Another familiar name comes in as the "most under-rated president." Carter was identified 64 times, with a score of 2.2
The survey addresses "partisan and ideological differences," but by making some rather curious claims (emphasis is added):
Examining the partisan and ideological differences among our respondents also indicates some interesting dynamics. While partisanship and ideology don’t tend to make a major difference overall, there are a few distinctions worth noting. For example, Republicans and Conservatives rank George Washington as the greatest president and James Buchanan as the least great. There are also several presidents where partisan polarization is evident – Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Obama, and Biden – but interestingly not for Bill Clinton.
It's later mentioned that Trump was identified the most times – 170 – as the "most polarizing president," with a near-perfect score of 1.4.
Astoundingly, Biden does not make the list of most polarizing presidents, despite how he's made it a hallmark of his presidency and reelection campaign to demonize his political opponents as "MAGA Republicans." Further, the American people haven't been sold that Biden is some unifier, no matter how he supposedly campaigned on that in 2020.
Another puzzling feature is how Trump and Biden are regarded among their parties. Trump ranks 41st among his fellow Republicans and 45th among Democrats and Independents. Biden, meanwhile, ranks 30th among Republicans, 13th among his fellow Democrats, and 20th among Independents.
What "Republicans" were weighing in on this survey? Are they Never Trumpers? Similar to the likes of The Lincoln Project? George Conway or Michael Steele? Republicans Against Trump?
When it comes to Trump's dead-last ranking, it's not even close. Presidents are given a "greatness" rating. Former President Abraham Lincoln, at the highest, enjoys a 2024 rating of 93.87. Biden is tied with former President John Adams for a rating of 62.66, and Trump is at 10.92. The 43rd and 44th picks, former Presidents Andrew Johnson and James Buchanan, are at 21.56 and 16.71, respectively.
We live in polarizing times, regardless of how much relevance the survey believes it has. But for Trump to be ranked below presidents who helped plunge the United States into our Civil War – including Buchanan and his predecessor, former President Franklin Pierce, the 42nd pick – is astounding. It's worth noting that Pierce was considered such a bad president that the Democratic Party wouldn't renominate him. Trump, who is supposedly worse than Pierce, didn't have that issue in 2020, and it doesn't look like he'll have that issue in 2024, either.
The survey also included a section on "Most Difficult to Asses Presidents." Some make sense, given that former President William Henry Harrison was only in office for exactly one month in 1841. He was too stubborn to put on a raincoat after being caught in the rain and caught pneumonia. He was referenced as the most difficult to assess, 92 times, with a ranking of 2.1. Nevertheless, he still ranks 41st, with a greatness ranking of 26.01.
Biden is also included on that list, having been identified 36 times with a ranking of 3.1.
While one could make the case that it doesn't make sense for Biden to be on that list, given that he hasn't even completed one term, the same should be said about Trump since he hasn't been out of office for very long and could still serve another term.
Even as Biden far outranks Trump in this survey, that's not the case for the 2024 hypothetical rematch that's looking increasingly likely. Trump has a +1.3 lead over Biden, according to RealClearPolling, with 45.4 percent support to Biden's 44.1 percent. Trump also enjoys a higher approval rating than Biden for their fourth year. Biden has a 40.8 percent approval rating, with 54.8 percent disapproving, and Trump has at a 44.4 percent approval rating for his fourth year, with 53.1 percent disapproving.
In order of ranked greatness, with their ratings, the presidents include:
1. Abraham Lincoln: 93.87
2. Franklin D. Roosevelt: 90.83
3. George Washington: 90.32
4. Teddy Roosevelt: 78.58
5. Thomas Jefferson: 77.53
6. Harry Truman: 75.34
7. Barack Obama: 73.8
8. Dwight D. Eisenhower: 73.73
9. Lyndon B. Johnson: 72.86
10. John F. Kennedy: 68.37
11. James Madison: 67.16
12. Bill Clinton: 66.42
13. John Adams: 62.66
14. Joe Biden: 62.66
15. Woodrow Wilson: 61.8
16. Ronald Reagan: 61.62
17. Ulysses S. Grant: 60.93
18. James Monroe: 60.15
19. George H. W. Bush: 58.54
20. John Quincy Adams: 55.41
21 Andrew Jackson: 54.7
22 Jimmy Carter: 54.26
23 William Howard Taft: 51.67
24 William McKinley: 51.23
25. James K. Polk: 49.83
26. Grover Cleveland: 48.31
27. Gerald Ford: 46.09
28. Martin Van Buren: 45.46
29. Rutherford B. Hayes: 41.15
30. James A. Garfield: 40.98
31. Benjamin Harrison: 40.64
32. George W. Bush: 40.43
33. Chester A. Arthur: 39.61
34. Calvin Coolidge: 39.38
35. Richard Nixon: 36.41
36. Herbert Hoover: 34.08
37. John Tyler: 32.99
38. Zachary Taylor: 32.97
39. Millard Fillmore: 30.33
40. Warren G. Harding: 27.76
41. William Henry Harrison: 26.01
42. Franklin Pierce: 24.6
43. Andrew Johnson: 21.56
44. James Buchanan: 16.71
45. Donald Trump: 10.92
Again, there's an argument for waiting to assess Biden and Trump. But, while we're looking at how Biden and Trump have ranked in other surveys, it's worth reminding that Pew Research in February 2022 released a poll showing that a plurality of adults, 43 percent, think Biden will be unsuccessful, while 37 percent think it's too early to tell. Just 20 percent think he'll be successful.