The Iowa caucuses are looking, well, not competitive. In the polling average, former president Donald Trump is lapping the field, leading by an average of 36 percentage points and potentially in line to claim an outright majority of caucus-goers on Monday. Barring a truly shocking upset, the only drama in the Hawkeye State is the battle over second place. It's hard to imagine any viable path forward for Ron DeSantis if he finishes a distant second -- while not clearly over-performing expectations -- and especially if he slips below the top two slots. He's placed nearly all of his eggs in the Iowa basket. He's worked very hard there, spent lots of money, campaigned in every county, invested enormous amounts of time, and racked up impressive endorsements. If all of that doesn't translate into something significant, it could be curtains, despite his denials. But what about New Hampshire?
Depending on which poll you look at, Trump could be legitimately vulnerable in Live Free Or Die country. The Haley campaign is touting numbers like these, showing momentum for the former South Carolina governor, and a single-digit margin separating her from the frontrunner:
New CNN poll in NH finds Haley within single digits, up 12 since their Nov. poll
— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) January 9, 2024
Trump: 39
Haley: 32
Christie: 12
Vivek: 8
DeSantis: 5https://t.co/cjvOPXniJL
But another brand new survey gives Trump a much stronger 20-point lead:
Trump has a nearly 20-point lead over Haley in NH, according to a new Suffolk University/Boston Globe/USA TODAY poll. Biden leads Trump by 7 in a general election rematch there. https://t.co/qd6sfzS43U
— Jim Puzzanghera (@JimPuzzanghera) January 9, 2024
As noted, that same poll shows Biden leading Trump in New Hampshire head-to-head, which is one of the stronger battleground state results for the incumbent in recent months. Also notable is that Chris Christie, who has practically lived in New Hampshire and is running an explicitly anti-Trump campaign, pulls 12 percent in each of these surveys. It's hard to imagine very many of his devotees gravitating to Trump if he were to exit the race. It's easy to imagine many of them drifting into Haley's column, so his continued presence in this contest remains a major factor. For those speculating that he might or should drop out and endorse Haley, and thus potentially inflict meaningful damage on Trump, I'd point to his pointed criticisms of Haley over the last few weeks. I wouldn't rule out an endorsement scenario, but if he's even considering getting out, Christie's poker face isn't giving any indication of that whatsoever.
Might the Iowa results substantially impact New Hampshire? Momentum is always a factor, and the trajectory of the race is something that primary voters, especially in the early states, certainly consider. If DeSantis surprises in Iowa, that might convince some New Hampshire voters to give him a second look. Right now, he's languishing in the single digits there. If Haley finishes ahead of DeSantis in Iowa, that could solidify her head of steam entering friendlier terrain, with his bid effectively dead. I'd guess she'd consolidate her Big Mo. But what if she fares poorly in Iowa, having gaffed a few times recently, which rival campaigns have been playing up? That could blunt her progress, and embolden someone like Christie to plant his feet and make a hard play for potentially waffling support. As things are shaping up, the only candidate who seems to be legitimately threatening to give Trump a run for his money in the nomination battle is Haley (again, DeSantis and others are working hard to change this perception coming out of Iowa).
If she can over-perform in the caucuses, then come close to beating Trump -- or actually beat him in New Hampshire (perhaps with the help of independents, who can participate) -- she'll have more than a month to park her campaign in her home state and try to cut into his lead there. That would be a tall task based on current polling, but I think her camp would take that scenario in a heartbeat. But whether anyone else has any real shot at dethroning Trump will be up to voters in a small handful of states, starting very soon. The likelihood of a Trump romp remains quite strong, but perhaps not inevitable. We will know soon enough.