Tipsheet

Poll Shows Iowans Are Still Undecided in GOP Primary

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  September 27, 2023 2:00 PM

On Tuesday, the eve of the second RNC debate, CBS News released their poll on where the candidates stand in the Republican presidential primary, specifically in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states in the Republican primary process. The poll's write-up notes that former and potentially future President Donald Trump "leads the Republican primary field comfortably in both Iowa and New Hampshire," with 51 percent and 50 percent, respectively. However, there are some interesting numbers out of Iowa to show voters in Iowa may be undecided.

As the write-up also notes, the "floor" for Trump is lower in Iowa and New Hampshire, especially in the former, since 20 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers say they're voting for "only Trump." Voters, in fact, are more likely to say they're "not considering Trump," with 31 percent saying as much. A strong plurality, at 48 percent, say they're considering "Trump and other candidates."

Thus, Trump's base might not entirely be so solid. While we are getting closer to the Iowa Republican Caucus on January 15, 2024, it's still several months away. 

The poll also asked voters their views on abortion, and Iowa voters are particularly pro-life. Over three-fourths of likely GOP caucusgoers, at 77 percent, believe abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. While the poll's write-up does not mention Trump's comments during a "Meet the Press" interview that aired last Sunday, those comments are nevertheless relevant. 

Trump told host Kristen Welker that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), currently in second place behind Trump, signing a heartbeat bill was "a terrible thing" and "a terrible mistake." Trump's been met with backlash not only from his primary opponents and pro-life leaders, but Iowa voters as well. 

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The poll was started on September 15, right before that interview aired.

In Iowa, an overwhelming amount of likely GOP caucusgoers, 73 percent, say they're "just keeping options open," which is why they're considering other candidates. Again, that could peak to how it's early. Smaller majorities said that "Trump is controversial" and the "Party needs someone new," at 55 and 52 percent, respectively. A smaller amount, at 44 percent, mention Trump's legal battles.

What's especially noteworthy is that a majority of voters in both early states, especially Iowa, say that the presidential debates are one of the "major factors" in evaluating a candidate.

Just as he did not attend the first RNC debate last month, Trump will not be attending the second debate. Instead, he'll be meeting with UAW workers on strike. That number's at 62 percent in Iowa, while 60 percent say "meeting voters face to face" is one of those "major factors."

Previous polling, including from Morning Consult, showed that voters wanted Trump to participate in the debates. This includes Trump voters. 

With Trump not participating, DeSantis has enjoyed the center podium spot, along with Vivek Ramaswamy. After the first debate, a poll from The Washington Post, FiveThirtyEight, and Ipsos showed a plurality of voters, at 29 percent, thought DeSantis performed the best. Former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) saw the most improvement in that poll. 

The CBS News poll was included in the RealClearPolitics averages for Iowa and New Hampshire. Trump overall leads in Iowa with 49.2 percent support for a spread of +33.2 and leads in New Hampshire with 44 percent for a spread of +31. DeSantis is in a distant second in both states, with 16 percent and 13 percent, respectively.

The CBS News poll was conducted September 15-24 with 1,011 registered voters in Iowa and 943 in New Hampshire. Among the 458 likely Republican caucusgoers, there was a margin of error of plus or minus 6.1 points and among the 502 likely Republican primary voters there was a margin of plus or minus 5.4 points.