Tipsheet

Panic Button? More Brutal Polling for Democrats

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  September 15, 2023 10:25 AM

Democrats can feel the heartburn rising in their throats.  It's beginning to dawn on them that Joe Biden could well lose next year's election, even if he's pitted against his preferred opponent in Donald Trump.  Faced with the prospects of (a) an unpopular incumbent who seems intent to run again, (b) a closing window with just a few months to go until the nominating process begins, and (c) no clear alternative with any sort of national campaign infrastructure, they may have no choice but to shove all of their eggs into the Biden basket and hope for the best.  Yes, Trump would arrive in a general election weighed down by tons of exploitable baggage, so they're hoping that would be enough to clinch another win.  But it may not.  It's not hard to see why the lefty chattering class and media are growing increasingly anxious -- and it's not just because Trump has edged out in front of Biden in the Real Clear Politics average.  Some of the specific findings in a handful of recent polls are just brutal for Biden and his party.  For example:

Only 34% of Americans said they approve of Biden's handling of the economy, compared with 59% who disapprove, according to the poll...Seventy-six percent of independents and even 34% of Democrats said the economy is getting worse. Eighty-four percent of Americans say their cost of living is rising, and food and groceries is the top concern. The results come as Biden has touted “Bidenomics” to frame his economic vision ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

Barely one-third of voters think this president is doing a good job on the economy. The president and his team have seared his name onto that economy, embracing the term "Bidenomics," and insisting that it's working. By wide margins, Americans disagree. For that reason, Trump holds a double-digit lead hypothetical lead over the incumbent on the top issue in the country. In short, people were doing a lot better under the previous administration, especially pre-COVID. They don't just know that based on data, they feel it. Among independent voters -- the critical voting bloc with whom Trump struggles, based on myriad factors -- Trump's lead on the economy expands from 11 points overall to 20 full points. That's a big deal.  Why does the overwhelming majority of the electorate believe the economy is getting worse?  It's quite simple: Everything costs a lot more than it did when Biden took office.  Just look at this, and note the start date of the inflation boom:

Overall prices are up 17 percent, and are still rising.  Most people -- quite rightly -- believe Biden's policies have made conditions worse.  The White House wasn't getting any credit for the rising prices going up more slowly (but still in the wrong direction), even though they tried to gin up enthusiasm for that talking point.  They will likely shoulder significant blame in the public's view when the rise in prices comes in hotter than expected.  On that score, here are two metrics, out this week.  CPI:

And PPI:

As Spencer pointed out, small business owners -- who drive the engine of the US economy -- also give Biden very low marks.  These prices are crushing everyone.  Then there's the question of the president's age and capacity to serve effectively in the office.  Whatever voters think of Trump, and most view him unfavorably, they don't see him as too old to do the job.  Biden, while also underwater on approval and favorability, is widely seen as not up for the gig:

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In poll after poll, voters offer deeply sour reviews of Trump's temperament and character.  And yet, asked about a hypothetical crisis moment, a majority would prefer Trump's hand on the wheel, versus the man currently in office.  Again, brutal stuff for Democrats.  Nevertheless, Biden narrowly leads Trump overall in this same survey, underscoring why the 46th president sees the 45th president as his best hope to remain in office.  My summary of the Quinnipiac numbers:


I'll leave you with Nancy Pelosi repeatedly declining to say whether Biden's unpopular running mate, who is one heartbeat away from the presidency, is the best choice to be on the 2024 ticket -- as well as a photograph that speaks volumes.  A sh*t sandwich election is likely to come down to turnout and enthusiasm.  Click and zoom in.  How many of those voters (self-selecting voters who presumably "want" to be there) in that audience look enthusiastic about this man, or his 'Bidenomics'?