The Arizona Senate seat is one of the key races to watch for 2024, as Republicans look to gain control of the chamber with a map much more favorable to their party this time around. While Kari Lake, the Republican gubernatorial nominee last November has indicated interest, the same can now be said for Blake Masters, who went up against Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) last November.
According to a report from POLITICO, which cited "three people familiar with the matter," Masters could announce next week. Lake is expected to announce in the fall, though some think it unlikely that they will both end up running. As the report mentioned:
Former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake’s advisers say she is expected to announce a Senate campaign in early fall, though some Republicans are skeptical Lake and Masters would run for the same seat. Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb is another GOP candidate.
Barrett Marson, an Arizona-based GOP strategist, said he talked to Masters a few months ago and he “was pretty decisively in.” However, he said, Masters had been waiting for Lake to decide whether to run.
“I think he is now under the impression that maybe Kari Lake isn’t going to run, because I’ll tell you if Lake and Blake are both in, he is wasting his time,” he said. “They occupy the same lane. They have nearly the same name. And she has much better positive name ID among Republicans than Blake does.”
“If Kari Lake runs, there is no lane for Blake Masters,” he added.
An unnamed Arizona-based Republican strategist was last month cited in The Hill also expressing doubt Masters would run if Lake were to get in the race. It doesn't appear to be something operatives are too excited about, though:
...Multiple GOP operatives described [Lake] as a “disaster” for the party if she runs, but they concede there’s little anyone can do to stop her at the primary level.
“I don’t think anyone jumps in if she gets in,” one Arizona-based GOP strategist told The Hill. “It’s a sweet giveaway to the Democrats.”
In addition, operatives believe that Blake Masters might launch a second bid in as many cycles for the Senate if Lake forgoes a run of her own. Masters, who had Trump’s endorsement in the state’s GOP Senate primary in 2022, went on to lose the general election to Sen. Mark Kelly (D) by 5 points.
“People are just like f—ing desperate, especially the business community. They’re desperate for a normal person, and they’re not going to get it,” the Arizona-based operative added.
Others aren't so certain. An Axios report on what could be a "ugly primary fight" includes comments from those who agree that Lake would be the frontrunner, but also comments from Republican consultant Sean Noble, who "says Masters should be a formidable candidate with his campaign experience and fundraising ability from last year's Senate race" and was quoted telling Axios Phoenix that "[t]his is not a game, set, match for Lake."
Reports such as the one from The Hill above, and others from POLITICO earlier this year, have framed Masters and Lake runs as cause for concerns, with headlines such as "Arizona Republicans fear they may blow it again" and "Republican losers look to run again in '24 — and the party’s at odds over how to stop them."
Last year's race was called for Kelly shortly after the election. He won with 51.40 percent of the vote to Masters' 46.51 percent.
Lake lost more narrowly to her Democratic opponent, now Gov. Katie Hobbs, with the race not being called until nearly a week after Election Day, after delays and issues counting votes. Hobbs won with 50.33 percent of the vote to Lake's 49.67 percent. Lake had issued lawsuits challenging the outcome of the election.
Both Masters and Lake received former and potentially future President Donald Trump's endorsement in their primary races last year.
Unseating an incumbent is always quite the feat, but this Arizona race could prove particularly interesting. Arizona's Sen. Kyrsten Sinema changed her party affiliation from Democrat to Independent last December, and she has not yet indicated whether she is running for reelection. Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego announced in January he was running.
Kurt Schlichter has also commented on the state of the primary and general election race in multiple columns for Townhall. As he wrote in July:
We need to beat [Sinema], but can we? Candidates matter, and Arizonans elected a bunch of Republican congresspeople last time, so the votes are there. They just refused to elect the other Republicans on the ballot. I like Kari Lake, but if she runs and gets nominated, we’re nearly certain to lose. Trump will hurt the GOP if he is on the ticket – like in Georgia, he has simply burned too many bridges with the party rank-and-file.
Oh, and there are going to be more election shenanigans under the Dem administration. But luckily, Trump’s pick for GOP chair Ronna McDaniel is on the case and is certain to be just as effective in 2024 as she was in 2020 and 2022. So, The GOP can probably write off Arizona.
Given that he's endorsed both Masters and Lake in the past, it will be interesting to see if Trump will make an endorsement between the two--should they both run--and what, if any, effect it has on the race.
The race is currently considered to he a "Toss-Up" by prognosticators.