Following Republican Gov. Kristi Noem's (R-S.D.) recent comments arguing that no GOP presidential candidate can win the nominee with former President Trump in the picture, one political analyst, in particular, is emphasizing her claims.
Pollster Richard Baris argues that with Trump's substantial 38-point average lead, according to RealClearPolitics, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) cannot catch up before the general election.
Baris says there is a "Trump or Bust" vote, meaning voters will not show up to the polls if the former president is not on the ballot. So hypothetically, even if DeSantis won the GOP nominee, he wouldn't attract the same voters as Trump.
"It's not mathematically possible [for DeSantis to win the general election without the MAGA vote], AND the reason is what we've been focusing on all year. The 'Trump OR Bust' vote is bigger than the NeverTrump (all parties) vote," Baris tweeted.
He can't. It's not mathematically possible AND the reason is what we've been focusing on all year.
— Rich Baris "The People's Pundit" (@Peoples_Pundit) July 26, 2023
The "Trump OR Bust" vote is bigger than the NeverTrump (all parties) vote. https://t.co/X37r9twSWD pic.twitter.com/xTLsOfAggI
Similar to what Noem said, they both pointed out that it doesn't make sense for other Republican candidates to stay in the race so long as Trump is still running.
Barris criticized those who claim polls aren't accurate— similar to what DeSantis has said, adding that Trump is far ahead marginally compared to other candidates.
"I keep seeing/hearing claims like, 'Polls are the only metric showing Trump is ahead. He's behind on all other campaign metrics.' That is 100% false. It's getting old—first, polling. There's nothing wrong with it. He's ahead by historical margins. Let's move on. Second, endorsements. As much as I hate to say it, there's a reason 538 'scores' endorsements," he continued.
He also bashed DeSantis for touting his state endorsements, arguing they mean nothing long-term. Baris argued that Trump is ahead when looking at endorsement metrics.
"This research failed at first in 2016 because Trump broke the rules. Also, we didn't see numbers in 2016 like in 2024. Eventually, they did fall in line, and he won. By the endorsement metric, Trump is WAY ahead of everyone. Sixty-seven to five in the House, ten to ZERO in the Senate, and two to eleven in gubernatorial endorsements. It's actually not close at all," Baris added.
Ugh. Okay, let's do this... again.
— Rich Baris "The People's Pundit" (@Peoples_Pundit) July 22, 2023
I keep seeing/hearing claims like, "Polls are the only metric showing Trump is ahead. He's behind on all other campaign metrics."
That is, 100%, false. It's getting old.
First, polling. There's nothing wrong with it. He's ahead by historical…
Several polls reveal Trump is dominating the GOP playing field despite several political persecutions being fired against him.
According to a poll from American Greatness, Trump has a +34 net lead over his closest rivals, including DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence.
Additionally, a survey from c0-efficient polling and the New Hampshire Journal found that DeSantis is polling in the single digits, tying with former New Jersey governor Chris Christie.