Tipsheet

New Survey Shows 'Joe Biden Is in Real Trouble'

A hypothetical matchup between President Biden and former President Donald Trump shows the two in a dead heat, according to the first New York Times survey of the 2024 election cycle.

The New York Times/Siena Poll shows the 45th president and Biden both receive the support of 43 percent of registered voters, while 14 percent declined to pick either candidate. In addition to those who did not respond, some in this "Neither of the Above" group said they will not vote in the general election, while others indicated they preferred a third-party candidate.

“Biden enters a potential rematch with Trump as a modest favorite. He effectively has a small lead today, and Trump’s growing list of indictments may aggravate his problems with swing voters,” the Times reports. “Yet the race is extremely close. Anybody who assumes that the 2024 outcome is sure to repeat the 2020 outcome — even in a rematch campaign — is making a mistake.”

The survey finds that while Biden is doing better among Democrats than he was last year, his support is "a mile wide and in inch deep." Roughly 30 percent of respondents who said they plan to cast their vote for the incumbent next year said they hoped another Democrat would be nominated, and only 20 percent of Democrats were "enthusiastic" about Biden being the party's nominee. 

As Spencer reported Monday, the New York Times/Siena survey shows Trump dominating the GOP field, even among those who believe he committed "serious federal crimes."