If things continue this way, the 2024 primary will end as they did in 2016: Donald Trump as the Republican nominee. Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis might be in serious trouble as his FEC filings show an operation burning through cash. Dozens of mid-level staffers have been fired, with more cuts expected in the coming days. DeSantis’ campaign appears to be a victim of expanding too quickly, leading to massive overhead. And all of this with the Florida governor still significantly behind former President Donald Trump in the polls.
The liberal media is obsessed with the DeSantis campaign’s anti-Pride ad, which they found offensive as a misstep. Still, I don’t think that alleged trip-up is what’s hamstringing the DeSantis operation. It’s Trump’s hold on the base, coupled with DeSantis’ lackluster favorability ratings and lack of charisma. Donald Trump aside, if you’re unpopular with the Republican base and can’t command a room—you’re not going far in the political campaign.
Can DeSantis turn it around? Comebacks have occurred in the primaries, but The Washington Post’s lengthy piece on the troubled DeSantis camp was littered with quotes from donors about whether Ron can pull it off. Erick Erickson, formerly of RedState, described DeSantis’ 2024 campaign as “rudderless.” He added that the Florida governor also needs to stop talking about the Sunshine State on the stump, which other donors highlighted as a criticism. We get it, Ron. Conservatism is thriving in Florida, but what’s next (via WaPo) [emphasis mine]:
More than seven weeks in, skepticism about the Florida governor’s 2024 bid has grown. Some people who have advised and supported DeSantis have raised private concerns about his message, and the effectiveness and insularity of his campaign operation, according to people familiar with the comments, among the more than 30 people interviewed for this story.
The doubts extend to long-friendly Fox News — where a recent headline asked, “Will DeSantis sink and fade out?” — and its owner, the conservative media magnate Rupert Murdoch, according to another person who speaks regularly with Murdoch about the presidential race. “He was excited about him at the beginning, but the more he shows himself, the less appealing he is,” said this person, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private deliberations and talk more freely. Murdoch will “come back to Trump if he thinks Trump can win,” this person added. A representative for Murdoch declined to comment Saturday.
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DeSantis has expressed confidence in his position and the ground game his allies are building in early states, saying he’s campaigning for the long term. “Watch and learn,” he said in Iowa on Friday when asked how he’d diminish Trump’s lead.
For many of his donors, allies and other Republican observers, DeSantis’s struggle to make headway is a testament to Trump’s grip on the GOP base, apparently invigorated politically by two criminal indictments. Some blame negative media coverage or unrealistic ideas of how the race could shift before the competition kicks into higher gear with debates.
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Some shifts are already underway: The campaign has started rolling out national policy — economic issues next, then foreign policy in August — and plans to do more mainstream media interviews around those proposals, according to a person close to the campaign. That person said the campaign was never counting on an immediate polling bump, views the debates as the next chance to shake up the race and noted that they have significant resources to deploy down the line.
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In a private fundraiser in Washington last month, DeSantis made this case for his nomination: He said that the media and “elites” wanted him to lose, and that Trump couldn’t win a general election and that President Biden was too old, according to a person present at the event. He also talked about Florida extensively, this person said.
But one donor who recently co-hosted an event for DeSantis described hearing sentiments such as “What’s going on?” and “Does he even have a chance?” from associates. This donor said he was trying to get other rich Republicans to give to DeSantis, but most wanted to keep their powder dry after his lackluster beginning.
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Soon, other concerns about the campaign were spilling out into public view. Erick Erickson, a conservative commentator who has criticized Trump and agrees with DeSantis on many issues, urged DeSantis to talk less about Florida — the most-used word in DeSantis’s kickoff speech, outside basic conjunctions — and more about national policy, especially on pocketbook issues.
“I would use the word ‘rudderless,’” Erickson said in an interview. He said DeSantis was the candidate his radio show callers talked the most about — but excitement had given way to disappointment with his campaign.
And yes, many donors in DeSantis’ FEC filings have maxed out; they can’t give again, which is cause for concern. No one wants to dole out boatloads of cash to someone who can’t get momentum going. That second Trump indictment paradoxically could be seen as an in-kind contribution to the Trump 2024 campaign from the Justice Department. DeSantis is veering into Scott Walker/Jeb Bush territory, a candidate who had tons of money behind him or was viewed as the party's future but then got brutally exposed once they decided to run for president. DeSantis is going to need a lot of help.
Let’s see how the rest of the summer goes.
